A new strike hit a ship moving through the Strait of Hormuz as talks to open the waterway bogged down in a dispute over fees, clouding the outlook for the vital energy corridor after President Trump declared a deal was close.
The British navy’s marine-traffic monitoring agency, UKMTO, reported that a cargo vessel had been hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Oman early Tuesday. UKMTO didn’t identify the ship or say who was responsible, but the incident provided a fresh reminder that commercial traffic remains vulnerable even as diplomats discuss reopening the route.
Under a proposal being discussed, Gulf-bound ships would enter through Iranian waters, while vessels leaving the Gulf would pass through Omani waters without paying fees, according to regional mediators.
While Iranian diplomats initially welcomed the proposal because it preserved some control over the strait, Tehran has demanded the right to collect fees, potentially shared with Oman, as well as guarantees against renewed attacks, an end to the U.S. naval blockade and relief from oil sanctions, mediators said. The U.S. and regional governments have rejected the demand for fees and want guarantees that Iran and its proxies won’t threaten their territories, senior regional officials said.
The conflicting signals—which came after Trump said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as soon as Tuesday—show how control of the waterway continues to play a central role in the conflict with Iran.
“The main gap remains: Iran wants the maritime blockade and military pressure eased first, while Washington wants the strait reopened and Iranian concessions before offering relief,” said Ebtesam Al Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, a think tank in the United Arab Emirates. “We may be getting closer to a limited interim understanding, but we are still some distance away from a broader settlement. The reality on the water is the best measure.”
Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, was up 1.1% Tuesday to $84.70 a barrel after slumping Monday on reports of progress toward a deal.
Iran’s chokehold on the strait has cut deeply into supplies of oil and gas. Persian Gulf oil flows have now fallen to around 36% of prewar levels, from nearly 80% in the first half of July when the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was mostly still holding, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients Tuesday.
Barring a deal between the U.S. and Iran or a major escalation of the conflict, Goldman analysts expect Brent to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel.
On Monday, Trump said discussions were taking place at the request of Iran and several Gulf states. “This is the last chance for them to sign a good document,” Trump, referring to Iran, told reporters in the Oval Office.
His comments followed his decision over the weekend to call off what he had billed as the biggest military attack since World War II to give talks a chance to proceed. After Iran denied any talks were taking place, Trump in a social-media post Monday accused the country’s leaders of being “unbelievably duplicitous.”
Trump also asserted that the U.S. Navy had complete control over Hormuz. “Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to,” he wrote.
Even as negotiators continued to talk with Iran about opening the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the paramilitary group that protects Iran’s regime and enforces its hold on the strait, had yet to formally respond to the latest proposal, mediators said. Some Revolutionary Guard officials told mediators they wouldn’t allow any deal that doesn’t acknowledge their claim to control the strait, and asserted Tehran was in a position of strength and ready for months of renewed conflict, mediators said.
If mediators can strike an agreement to reopen the waterway, they will then try to revive the memorandum of understanding the U.S. and Iran signed in June to start the process of winding down the war. The agreement broke down last month as Washington and Tehran clashed over Iran’s assertion of control over Hormuz.
Mediators also said Pakistan has proposed hosting a new round of talks between Iran and the U.S.