In some areas of military strength, China has surpassed America

The PLA is still far from being ready for war with America. China’s official aim is to “modernise" its armed forces by 2035 and make them world-class by 2049. But the PLA has already undergone an extraordinary transformation, from an ill-equipped outfit two decades ago to a regional power today. The old image of China’s armed forces focusing on quantity over quality is outdated. In recent years China has improved the effectiveness of its arms to such an extent that, in some areas, it has already matched or surpassed America.

Any analysis of China’s advantages has to begin with its navy—called the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). It is not just the world’s largest, but also has the newest vessels. Around 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, compared with a quarter of America’s, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank. When it comes to design and material quality, many Chinese ships are comparable to America’s, says the US Office of Naval Intelligence. 

American warships tend to be larger and better armed, but China is catching up. One important measure of naval power is the number of vertical launch system (VLS) cells, or advanced missile launchers. CSIS estimates that in 2004 American ships, on average, had 222 VLS cells for each Chinese one. But the ratio will soon tip in the PLAN’s favour (see chart). China is also innovating. America has nothing like the hybrid propulsion systems in China’s Zhou-class submarines, says Tom Shugart, a retired American naval officer. He also points to a Chinese amphibious assault ship under construction, called the Type 076, which will be the world’s largest and the only one with a catapult to launch drones.

China’s air force, called the PLAAF, is on a similar trajectory. Its most advanced warplanes are probably not as state-of-the-art or stealthy as America’s. But having once struggled to develop high-quality jet engines, China now produces models that are near the calibre of those from NATO countries, says Brendan Mulvaney of the China Aerospace Studies Institute, a US Air Force think-tank. China is also thought to churn out stealth fighters faster than America does. And the weapons carried by Chinese aircraft have improved dramatically. China is often ahead in areas where America has failed to invest, says John Culver, a former CIA man. He points to the range, speed, sensors and anti-jamming capabilities of Chinese air-to-air and anti-ship missiles.

The most striking progress by China has come in the area of hypersonic missiles, which fly and manoeuvre at more than five times the speed of sound. Such weapons have forced countries to rethink their defences. Earlier this year Jeffrey McCormick of America’s National Air and Space Intelligence Centre told Congress that China had the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal. America is testing faster and more accurate missiles, says Mr Mulvaney. But China has already deployed multiple hypersonic-weapon systems.

With other arms that rely on newer technologies it is often difficult to judge who is ahead, not least because they are rarely tested in public. But the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, another think-tank, publishes an annual critical-technology tracker measuring high-impact research across countries. Its survey in 2024 found that China ranked top in six out of seven crucial defence-related areas: advanced aircraft engines, drones and collaborative robots, hypersonic detection and tracking, advanced robotics, autonomous systems and space-launch systems. America was ahead only in small satellites.

Such rankings are contested and fail to capture the secret research done on all sides. Moreover, combat effectiveness is not just the sum of individual weapons and technologies. The failure of Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was at odds with many Western assessments of Russian military prowess, which did not account for intangible factors. China’s armed forces have their own problems, such as corruption, inadequate logistics and poor integration between the army, navy and air force. China also lacks combat experience, having not fought a war in decades.

But that is scant consolation for those watching the PLA’s progress over the past two decades. Few peacetime precedents exist for the speed and scale of China’s military modernisation. It has done it while barely breaking a fiscal sweat, spending less than 2% of its GDP on the armed forces, compared with more than 3% in America. “We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge," said Frank Kendall, the US Air Force secretary, in April. “Our cushion is gone. We are out of time."