Iran is better positioned to launch nuclear-weapons program, new US intelligence

The shift in Washington’s view of Iran’s nuclear efforts comes at a critical time, with Iran having produced enough highly-enriched nuclear fuel for a few nuclear weapons.

It also comes as tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated since Iran threatened to strike Israel following the assassination of a leading Hamas figure in Tehran that the Iranians have blamed on the Israelis.

The U.S. intelligence community still believes that Iran isn’t currently working to build a nuclear device, a U.S. official said. Nor does it have evidence that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is considering resuming his country’s nuclear-weapons program, which U.S. intelligence says was largely suspended in 2003.

But a July report to Congress from the director of national intelligence warned that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so."

The report omitted what has been a standard U.S. intelligence assertion for years: that Iran “isn’t currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device."

President Biden has repeatedly said that the U.S. will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, raising the possibility of military action if Washington was to determine that Tehran has embarked on an intensive effort to build a nuclear device. Iran says that its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.

Republicans have assailed the Biden administration, alleging that it hasn’t done enough to strengthen and enforce economic sanctions. But Biden administration officials say former President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal has enabled Iran to speed up its nuclear activities.

Iran has rebuffed U.S. and European attempts to revive that nuclear deal, but U.S. officials are still in communication with Tehran.

Driving the change in the new intelligence assessment is scientific and engineering research work that Iran has been doing over the past year, experts say.

The research Iran is conducting “could shrink the knowledge gap Tehran faces in mastering the ability to build a weapon," though U.S. intelligence maintains it wouldn’t shorten the time the country needs to make a weapon, the U.S. official said.

In the past, some of this work, which is continuing, might have been considered an indication that Tehran was pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, the U.S. official said. But U.S. intelligence agencies are re-examining their criteria for assessing Iran’s nuclear activities in light of what it is learning about the program.

“Iran doesn’t have an active military nuclear program," said a spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

U.S. officials provided no details regarding the nature of the work Iran is believed to be doing. However in recent months there have been concerns among Israeli and U.S. officials about weaponization-related research being conducted by Iran, including computer modeling and metallurgy, according to people briefed on the issue.

Such work is part of a gray zone between putting in place the components for a nuclear weapon, such as producing highly enriched uranium and uranium metal production, and actually building a device. The Iranian research activities are generally dual-use work, allowing Tehran to claim the work is for civilian purposes.

Iran’s research isn’t the only reason for concern. The U.S. assessment also notes “there has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo."

Even if Iran weren’t to proceed with the development of a bomb, the intelligence report added, Tehran seeks to exploit international worry over the pace of its program “for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure."

“Now that Iran has mastered the production of weapons-grade uranium, the next logical step is to resume weaponization activities to shorten the time needed to manufacture a nuclear device once a political decision is made," said Gary Samore, the director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and a former White House official during the Obama administration. “Given the need for secrecy, it appears that Iran is proceeding very cautiously, which creates uncertainty and ambiguity about its intentions."

After the U.S. withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, which lifted most international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for tight but temporary restrictions on its nuclear work, Iran massively expanded its uranium enrichment program.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month that it would probably take Iran “one or two weeks" to produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. Experts say Iran already has enough enriched uranium of various grades to be able to fuel multiple nuclear weapons within six months.

It also has an advanced missile program and has resumed work on critical components of building a nuclear warhead, such as producing uranium metal.

“I am prepared to accept the IC judgment that the supreme leader hasn’t already made a decision to weaponize the program," said Ariel Levite, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment and a former Israeli official, referring to the U.S. intelligence community.

“But by the same token I am inclined to believe that he has at least not forbidden his scientists from engaging in activity that would allow them to take Iran to the uppermost level of a nuclear threshold," he said.

There is overwhelming evidence, including from the International Atomic Energy Agency and from archives seized by Israel in 2018, that Tehran had a comprehensive nuclear-weapons program until 2003.

That past work included advances in many key areas of producing a warhead. It also included weaponization-relevant research.

While the U.S. assessed that Iran’s core nuclear weapons work stopped in 2003, the U.N. atomic-agency watchdog has said that Iran continued to do research work relevant to mastering a nuclear weapon after 2003. Some experts and officials believe Iran has continued that work throughout the past two decades in some fashion, edging closer to full mastery of building a bomb.

This research could include, for example, refining knowledge on neutron initiators to jump-start the chain reaction in a nuclear weapon, work on guidance systems for warhead-carrying missiles or on separation of a warhead from a missile, experts say.

The 2015 nuclear accord allowed international inspections of locations where Iran might be carrying out such nuclear-related work. However those inspections have stopped as Iran wound back its commitments under the nuclear deal in response to the U.S. decision to leave the agreement in May 2018.

The spokesman for the office of the director of national intelligence said the U.S. intelligence community is well-positioned to detect active work by Iran to build a nuclear weapon.

Some experts have doubts. David Albright, a former weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, said it could take Iran less than six months to develop a crude nuclear device and that Iran has before managed to deceive the U.S. and others about its nuclear capabilities in the past.

“We need a new, honest public discussion on Iran’s nuclear-weapons capabilities and the technical and diplomatic structure Tehran has put in place that would allow it to quickly build nuclear weapons while the U.S. is paralyzed in its attempts to avoid a crisis."