Iran plays hardball with the US to throw it off balance

The diplomatic gambit along with military moves the same day, in which Iran launched a drone at an American aircraft carrier and sent gunboats to harass a U.S.-flagged oil tanker, suggest Tehran is determined to turn the tables and apply pressure on the U.S. as President Trump builds up forces in the region and tries to push Iran to negotiate on his terms.

Iran’s tactics present a challenge for Trump’s style of diplomacy, in which he prefers quick deals negotiated via a small number of trusted lieutenants. With few good options, analysts say Iran is playing for time and risking miscalculation as the armed standoff continues.

“It’s not particularly auspicious in terms of what comes next," said Michael Wahid Hanna, the U.S. program director at International Crisis Group. “The buildup of force and the threat of force hasn’t created that much room for actual diplomacy. It seems as if the ask was capitulation, effectively. "

Regional powers had pushed hard to set up the talks in Turkey in hopes of opening a diplomatic pathway to avert a possible war while addressing their own concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for regional militias. By late Monday, it appeared the talks were set and would bring Iranian and regional officials together with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner in Turkey.

Early Tuesday, Iranian officials began circulating the message that they weren’t on board with the venue or format. They pushed to move the meeting to Oman, to leave out the regional representatives and negotiate only with the U.S., and to narrow the scope to Iran’s nuclear program, leaving out its missiles and regional militia allies—reopening a set of issues that U.S. and Middle Eastern officials thought had been resolved days earlier.

The moves were signature Iranian negotiating tactics, according to current and former Middle Eastern and Western officials. Iranian negotiators for years have used pressure tactics and last-minute changes of venue and topic to try to outmaneuver their counterparts.

“They’ve done it before in terms of the nuclear negotiations, where you think that on such and such a date, you both agreed that X would be the case, and then the issue is reopened," said Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat and nuclear negotiator with Iran.

Despite Iran’s moves, the White House said Tuesday that it remains committed to finding a diplomatic solution and that talks will go ahead. Regional officials said there was agreement to meet in Oman on Friday, but they continued to debate the scope of the discussions and whether officials from other interested countries around the region would join them.

Middle Eastern officials involved in efforts to de-escalate the tensions say they are downgrading expectations for Friday’s meeting following their conversations with Iranian diplomats. They say they now expect it to be an exchange of ideas with few concrete outcomes, and some say they are resigned to what they see as an inevitable military confrontation.

The mediators’ main goal for Friday’s talks is to arrive at a general announcement by both sides saying they are committed to diplomacy and have agreed to de-escalate tensions and cease hostilities, the officials said.

The U.S. and Iran are at odds over a range of issues. Tehran only wants to discuss its nuclear program, while the Trump administration is demanding a wider conversation of curbs on Iran’s missile program and support for allied militias in the region.

Iran may have won a tactical victory by succeeding in moving the talks to Oman—a more discreet location where Iranian officials will face less cajoling by big regional powers like Turkey and scrutiny from the world’s media in Istanbul.

“Iran is seeking to shift the venue, because it viewed the multilateral, open format in Türkiye as a high-risk, low-reward proposition," said Oral Toga, a researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies in Turkey. “This move is a strategic attempt to tilt the terms of negotiation in its favor."

Iran’s shifting demands are coming alongside ambiguity about the Trump administration’s publicly stated goals, which range from an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program to regime change in Tehran.

The evolving demands from both sides have made the diplomatic planning especially complex, the officials involved in the effort said. Middle East power brokers like Turkey, Qatar and Egypt attempting to mediate in the crisis have little idea what each side truly wants out of the talks, or whether a viable path to an agreement really exists, the officials said Wednesday.

“This is a novel situation, partly because the strategic uncertainty and inconsistency of the U.S. has magnifying consequences in terms of what Iran is deciding to do," Eyre said.

Trump initially threatened military strikes to help protesters who challenged the Iranian regime in late December and early January before a government crackdown killed thousands of people.

Trump in recent weeks has said he hopes he doesn’t have to use force against Iran and that he wants to strike a deal that would curb its nuclear and missile programs. At the same time, he has also dispatched a large naval task force including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and warplanes to the region.

A senior administration official has said that Trump has been consistent that Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon and is purposefully ambiguous to keep his strategic objectives and military thinking secret.

The goal of discovering how much Iran will concede on its nuclear program will be more difficult if the talks in Oman proceed with fewer third parties involved.

“Turkey would try to discover and identify the ultimate negotiation threshold of Iran," said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Istanbul-based think tank Edam. “That’s the advantage of having Turkey in the room."

Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com