Iran’s calculations are scrambled by US raid in Caracas

Trump said Friday that Washington was “locked and loaded" to come to the aid of Iranian protesters if Tehran cracks down harshly on them. A day later, the U.S. military launched strikes on the capital of Venezuela, an Iran ally, and brought Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to the U.S. to face criminal charges.

“It confirms that Trump is unpredictable and truly everything is on the table vis a vis Iran," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a think tank in London.

In recent months, the Trump administration has carried out airstrikes on militants in Yemen, Nigeria and Syria, saying they threatened U.S. or allied interests. But the capture of Maduro, a serving head of state, in a raid on the capital has been the administration’s most audacious operation to date.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday called on the United Nations to step in to stop what it called the illegal U.S. aggression against Venezuela. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, called the capture “a clear example of state terrorism" in a call with his Venezuelan counterpart, Yvan Gil.

A number of top Iranian leaders have threatened to retaliate against the U.S. if Trump carries through with his threat to intervene on the side of the protesters.

Iranian leaders were already reassessing their vulnerabilities after a disastrous year in which Israel decisively broke with a longstanding reluctance to attack the country directly and shattered Iran’s air defenses in a 12-day war in June. Trump joined the attack late in the war to bomb key Iranian nuclear facilities.

Israel also decimated Iranian allies Hezbollah and Hamas, which were key members in Tehran’s network of regional militias that helped deter attacks.

Maduro’s capture will now force the Iranian regime to weigh more heavily the possibility that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could be forcibly removed, said Roozbeh Aliabadi, an Iranian consultant at geopolitical advisory firm Global Growth Advisors.

“Maduro’s capture is a game changer for Iran," he said. “It opens up possibilities that didn’t exist in Iran before."

Israel praised Maduro’s removal and said it stood with the people of Venezuela.

The move to arrest Maduro has few precedents in American foreign policy. Washington captured Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega in 1990 on drug charges. The U.S. helped topple Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi, but both dictators were ultimately killed by their own people.

During the 12-day war in June, the Israeli and U.S. attacks were primarily aimed at Iran’s nuclear and missile program. But Israel also attacked top military officers and symbols of the regime such as Tehran’s Evin prison, raising concerns it might try to force an end to the regime.

Trump’s recent threat expands the possible scenarios for military action to protecting human rights, analysts say.

The rising external risks come as the government in Tehran is struggling to come up with a response to protests that were triggered a week ago by frustration with the country’s collapsing currency.

The regime has alternated between striking a conciliatory tone over economic grievances and threatening violence against demonstrators it has tarred as agents of foreign enemies. In his first official response to the protests, Khamenei said Saturday he understood the economic concerns but said unrest had been engineered by Iran’s foes.

“This unjustified rise in the exchange rate is not natural; it is the work of the enemy," state media quoted him as saying. “Rioters must be dealt with in their proper place."

At least 15 protesters have been killed so far in the unrest, which has now expanded to 60 cities, the group Human Rights Activists in Iran said late Saturday.

Khamenei, who has the final say on Iran’s domestic and foreign policy, has been in power since 1989. His insistence on Iran’s right to enrich uranium has been the main stumbling block in nuclear talks that could lead to relief from crippling sanctions.

The supreme leader has been a lightning rod for protesters who oppose his uncompromising stance on foreign policy and his repressive policies and strict moral codes at home.

Protesters are likely to feel empowered by the U.S. pledge of support.

“2026 starts as a nightmare for the Iranian leadership," said Mustapha Pakzad, a geopolitical analyst focused on Iran. “The regime’s options have been narrowed very significantly."

Write to Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com