Every month, Mint Plain Facts brings out an update on key global data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India.
Here are the five key global events:
Iran’s do-or-die strategy
After US and Israel air strikes on 28 February killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the West Asian nation has been fighting a high-risk survival war.
It has responded to the US-Israel offensive, mostly targeting its capital, Tehran, by attacking nearly all nearby Gulf countries, widening the conflict. Iran said it was attacking these countries in retaliation, targeting mainly US and Israeli military assets.
However, Iran’s attacks have involved several civilian and high-profile sites like the Dubai International Airport. Data by Acled (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) shows that Iran has been involved in fewer air and drone events (may contain multiple strikes) compared to the US-Israel. However, its aggressive strategy to expand chaos across all neighbouring nations, particularly the UAE, has prohibited the US-Israel from claiming an easy victory in West Asia.
Moreover, escalation of the war by Iran threatens to choke oil and gas supply and could potentially prompt the Gulf nations to put pressure on the US and Israel to end the war.
Policy pause
Several major central banks are set to announce their monetary policy decisions in March and April, under the cloud of war-related uncertainty in West Asia. Most of them are widely expected to be in wait-and-watch mode including India, keeping interest rates unchanged amid rising geopolitical risks and an energy price shock.
Many of these central banks have already cut rates aggressively since January 2025, giving them little room to offer more easing. The US Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady even as policymakers are in a difficult position: keep borrowing costs unchanged to prevent inflation from worsening, or cut rates to support a job market that is showing signs of weakness.
India is expected to be on pause for long, channelling its focus more towards liquidity. The UK was widely expected to cut rates amid a weak economic outlook, but rising energy prices may lead to a pause. Japan, which was expected to hike earlier, may choose to pause amid the crisis.
Dragging dragon?
After three decades of astonishing economic growth that made China a superpower, the global giant is slowing down.
For the first time since 1991, China has set its growth target below 5% (4.5-5.0%) for 2026 amid its weak domestic consumption and fragile global environment. While the recent developments in the country, from its property crises to multiple stimulus packages failing to lift growth signal stagnation, the Chinese authorities have dubbed lower ambitions as shifting focus toward “high-quality growth”, anchored on high-tech industries.
This strategy aims to harden supply chains against external shocks, while managing a difficult transition from an export-reliant engine to one fueled by domestic consumption. Ultimately, the lower target provides policymakers with the necessary flexibility to prioritize structural reforms and risk prevention over the pursuit of raw, unsustainable expansion.
So far, China has a stellar record in meeting its growth targets, which has enabled it to amass nearly a fifth of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). The pivot towards high quality growth also signals the dragon’s attempt to avoid the middle-income trap.
Split sentiment
AI is beginning to send shivers down the global software industry.
Since early January this year, stocks of top software companies globally have fallen sharply as investors worry that AI could take over many functions traditionally performed by software firms.
The launch of new AI agents and plugins by companies like Anthropic (specifically Claude's ‘Cowork’ tools) has sparked fears that AI can automate complex tasks, reducing the need for traditional, per-seat enterprise software. The S&P 500 software index has declined nearly 15% year-to-date in 2026.
In contrast, the S&P technology select sector index, which includes giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, has declined only 5%. The two-speed sell-off has also opened up a clear divergence between two segments: legacy software companies and technology companies. Data shows that markets broadly valued companies in these two groups similarly until 2021-2022, but investor sentiments began splitting as AI became mainstream with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022.
Age rage
The 98th Academy Awards are set to be held on 15 March, with Timothée Chalamet emerging as the frontrunner for his performance in Marty Supreme. At 30 years of age, Chalamet’s win could become one of the rare Oscar moments: so far, only three male actors have won an Oscar for a lead role at 30 or less.
The Academy Awards are known to reward younger women and older men, at least in the lead actor category. Data shows that since the inception of the award in 1929, five women have won under the age of 25, while no men have won in this category. Between the ages of 25 and 30, only three men have won, while the number for women is 10 times more at 31.
While the gendered age bias may reduce Chalamet’s probability of winning this year, older women are also at the receiving end of it, with fewer women than men winning the award after the age of 50, signalling an early peak for female actors.
However, the gender gap has reduced in recent years, with women winners in the 2020s being only 4.5 years younger than men compared to around 10 years in earlier decades.