When the U.S. failed to secure a quick victory over Iran, some observers said this was America’s “Suez moment.” If so, someone forgot to tell Xi Jinping.
The analogy isn’t meant to be a kind one. In historical terms, Suez is a byword for the humiliation of a once-great but declining power. In 1956 British forces, along with those of France and Israel, landed in Egypt intent on overthrowing the government, but Washington, worried that the war might benefit the Soviets, forced London into an early cease-fire and withdrawal. The U.K. grudgingly passed the mantle of Middle East hegemony to the U.S.
With the Trump administration struggling to open the Strait of Hormuz and declare victory in the Gulf, will America be shoved aside by China and experience its own Suez moment? All signs point to no.
China has in recent years received roughly half its oil from the Middle East. It has poured billions of dollars in investment into the Arab Gulf states. The United Arab Emirates is China’s foremost destination for foreign investment in the Middle East and hosts thousands of Chinese companies. Recently, all those assets have been exposed to Iranian missiles that Beijing itself had a hand in providing to Tehran.
The Middle East was also the arena in which Beijing was beginning to demonstrate its clout as a potential power broker beyond Asia. Mr. Xi’s greatest diplomatic triumph of recent years was arguably the negotiation in 2023 of a normalization agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. That deal was one that Washington couldn’t hope to secure, and it now lies in tatters.
Beijing’s response has been to look on impassively. It hasn’t come to the aid of its key economic partners like the U.A.E. Meanwhile, China’s relations with Iran, its supposed strategic partner, have been tenuous. Beijing has cautiously aided Tehran—buying oil and reportedly providing limited military support. Iran repaid the favor by seizing a Chinese vessel the same day President Trump and Mr. Xi met in Beijing. (Iran also fired on a Chinese vessel days before.) The moves indicated to both leaders exactly what Tehran thought of suggestions that China could force Iran to open the strait.
Instead, China has continued a pattern that has largely characterized its Middle East policy since the outbreak of regional war in 2023. It has first and foremost looked to secure its own interests, reportedly seeking to secure the passage of its own ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as it did in the Bab al-Mandeb when Yemen’s Houthis menaced that choke point. It has used the war to criticize the U.S. and tout itself as a sober alternative to American leadership. And it has issued diplomatic proposals that amount to little more than pablum, calling for “peaceful coexistence” and a “balanced approach to development and security” while evading the thorny issues underlying the war itself.
China appears unprepared to help protect the global commons. Some may see in this a strategy to force Washington to expend its power far from Beijing’s neighborhood, but it is hard to deny that China increasingly cuts the figure of an aspiring regional, rather than global, power.
Yet this may be cold comfort to the Trump administration. The conflict in Iran has underscored that while Washington has interests around the world, the American military can’t be everything, everywhere, all at once. Its munitions stockpiles aren’t sufficient, nor is the size of the military itself.
The need to shift burdens is real, and the only viable option for doing so is to coordinate more closely not with rivals and adversaries, but with longstanding partners in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Doing so is time-consuming and often frustrating but is rarely regretted by U.S. policymakers. Allies amplify American power, and consulting with them often forces a focus and discipline on Washington’s own aims and strategies.
Iran isn’t America’s Suez moment. Neither China nor any other rising hegemon is waiting in the wings to relieve Washington of its burdens, and the U.S. is no declining power. But even a superpower must husband its strength and employ it wisely, and if the war with Iran reminds U.S. officials of that, Washington’s rivals may yet come to rue it.