Is Syria’s drug-dealing dictator coming in from the cold?
- Bashar al-Assad is less of a pariah, but cannot hold the country together
At first it seemed that the opening in August of the Abu al-Zendayn crossing between rebel- and regime-held territory within Syria might herald the reconnection of the fragments of the country. On a hill outside al-Bab, north of Aleppo, rebels, protected by Turkey, and regime forces, protected by Russia and Iran, pulled back the barbed wire. Syrians displaced in the north planned long-awaited visits home. They cheered the prospect of a reprieve from smugglers’ exorbitant tariffs. Foreign governments wondered if refugees might venture back home. But a day later, shells were flying and the crossing was once again closed.
While the eyes of the world are on Gaza, Syria’s war, in which over 400,000 have died and 14m have been displaced, grinds into its 14th year. The shattered country is looking more like Lebanon, its chaotic neighbour. It is increasingly divided along ethnic and religious lines. Warlords backed by foreign powers defend their turf, funding their militias like highwaymen and charging for passage across the lines of conflict. Outside powers have piled in, adopting local leaders and picking at ethnic and religious seams. And in a once fast-growing middle-income economy, over a quarter of the population live on less than $2.15 a day. Few did before 2011, when the civil war began.
The north, with roughly half of Syria’s current population of 16m, broke free of the regime’s control eight years ago. A Sunni fighterruns the north-west. The Kurds, backed by America, rule the north-east (see map). Sandwiched between them are Turkey’s armed forces inside Syria and their local proxy, the Syrian Interim Government (SIG).
The regime in Damascus has lost control of Syria’s skies and its borders. Its foreign backers, Russia, Iran and its Shia Lebanese offshoot, Hizbullah, act as if the country were their own. Shia militias from Iraq and Lebanon dominate the borderlands. Hizbullah has used the country as a base to launch missiles against Israel.
Meanwhile, in the south-west, the Druze, once loyal to the Assad family, have been protesting against Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator, for over a year, demanding free elections and his removal. In the north, proceeds from smuggling and sales of oil and wheat have helped the Kurds and Idlib’s erstwhile jihadists consolidate their rule. “He’s not the master of his own home,” says a un official.
Holed up in the capital, Mr Assad still believes he can reunite Syria and restore it as a regional power. He talks oddly about “administrative decentralisation” as a way to bring the country together. A plan to end a much-loathed conscription policy is said to be on the cards. And he argues, not without reason, that if he can stay put, his foreign foes’ fear of Iran and another exodus of refugees may yet push them to abandon their demands for political transition and to restore ties. Last year, the Arab League readmitted him and began to send aid. In July eight eu member states proposed engaging with Mr Assad. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wants to re-establish relations and revive Syria’s economy as a way to persuade Syrian refugees to return.
Yet Mr Assad’s army is too spent to recapture the north. Without external finance, he risks losing even the territory he still holds. Few countries will risk American sanctions to invest in his fire sale of many state holdings, such as Damascus airport, let alone fund the $200bn the World Bank estimates it will cost to rebuild Syria. Judged by the density of night-time lighting viewed from space, the World Bank reckons Syria’s economy has shrunk by over 80% since 2010. The Syrian pound has lost 99% of its value against the dollar since the start of the war, a collapse similar to that of the Lebanese pound. In the north, Syrians have ditched it for the Turkish lira. Last year Mr Assad cut most subsidies, hobbling more basic services. “I’m happy to volunteer but not to pay to volunteer,” says a teacher whose salary no longer covers her bus ride to school.
While the state crumbles, Mr Assad shakes down smugglers and has a near-monopoly on the global production of captagon, an amphetamine. Drug exports are worth almost twice as much as all licit exports combined, says the World Bank. But the revenues accrue to Mr Assad. His base is narrowing, too. In a recent government reshuffle, almost all the appointees were Alawites, his own minority sect.
Others think they can save the country. In a gated mansion in al-Ray, near the Turkish border, ministers from the SIG, a body formed by a rebel coalition, consider themselves the future of a united post-Assad Syria. Within their territory, which extends 40km south from Turkey’s border towards Aleppo, Syria’s second city, people speak freely. Anti-government banners hang from official buildings. Policemen earn $100 a month, five times more than they would in the regime’s domain. Electricity runs round the clock. And an industrial zone offers investors access to cheap labour and global markets tax-free via Turkey.
But Turkey, which has thousands of troops in northern Syria, wants the sig to be its proxy rather the basis of a stable future government. Just 15% of the customs revenue Turkey collects at the international border crossings goes to the sig, says an official. Most goes to local councils and the militias that make up the 45,000-strong Free Syrian Army. “Everything is in the hands of the Turks,” admits the commander of a Turkish-backed Syrian militia. “Turkey doesn’t want us to unite in case we say no to Turkey—that’s why they fund so many militias.” Many local representatives, including the sig’s prime minister, are ethnic Turks. Even the minarets on many restored mosques copy the Turkish design, with pincer-thin metal spears rather than Syria’s traditional stone octagons. “It’s northern Cyprus in the making,” says another un official, referring to the enclave Turkey has held for 50 years.
Over the past 2,000 years Syria has been fragmented more often than it has been united, the tool of foreign powers more than a sovereign country. That seems to be true once again.
© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Ltd. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com
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Business NewsGlobalIs Syria’s drug-dealing dictator coming in from the cold?
First Published:20 Nov 2024, 03:53 PM IST
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