Israel goes to war without Trump. The US may be drawn in anyway

Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. Israel attacked Iran's capital early Friday, with explosions booming across Tehran.(AP Photo)
Smoke rises after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025. Israel attacked Iran's capital early Friday, with explosions booming across Tehran.(AP Photo)
Summary

The US is Israel’s most important ally, and it will be difficult for Washington to avoid being drawn into the conflict in the coming days.

Donald Trump campaigned as candidate of peace, saying he would end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“When I return to the White House, we will quickly restore stability in the Middle East, and we will return the world to peace," he told the Israeli-American Council in Washington in September.

Now, the Middle East is descending into a new phase of uncertain and dangerous war. Israel launched early Friday morning a long-anticipated but still stunning predawn assault on its adversary, Iran. Israel sought to destroy the country’s nuclear program, which has grown near completion. Talks have drawn out for months without conclusion.

Israel’s attack ended any hope of negotiations, though it was not immediately clear how severely its forces damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Attacks also targeted Iranian personnel. State media reported that the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been killed.

The Trump administration immediately distanced itself from the attack. “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement. “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. personnel," he said.

But the US is Israel’s most important ally, and it will be difficult for Washington to avoid being drawn into the conflict in the coming days. Trump is perhaps the only foreign leader who might be capable of talking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of more strikes. The U.S. may be called into Israel’s defense against any retaliation, as it has in the past. Or it may be called the defense of Saudi Arabia and other regional partners, who have been at the mercy of Iran’s attacks before.

“We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump told reporters he was against Israel launching an attack because it would ruin ongoing negotiations with Iran. “I think it would blow it," he said. He equivocate. An attack by Israel “might help [negotiations], actually, but it could also blow it."

The White House did not immediately return a request for comment.

The bombing campaign won’t necessarily be over quickly, Netanyahu said in a recorded message shortly after the attack started.

The strikes could last “as many days as it takes" to remove the threat of Iran’s nuclear program, he said.

“We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. We struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weaponization program," Netanyahu said. “We targeted Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz. We targeted Iran’s leading nuclear scientists working on the Iranian bomb. We also struck at the heart of Iran’s ballistic missile program."

Analysts have long debated whether Israel has the capability to destroy Iran’s heavily defended nuclear program without U.S. help. Netanyahu projected confidence in the immediate aftermath, but it may require ground troops for Israel to fully eliminate the nuclear program.

Netanyahu proceeded anyway, all but daring a president who has long proclaimed his bent for peace in his wake to join the conflict.

The attack unfolded as Israel has reached the apex of its recent power, and Iran its nadir. Israel has struck successfully against its enemies in Hamas, Hezbollah, and more. Iran has few friends nearby and is more vulnerable than ever. Many analysts have warned about the rising potential for conflict, which could easily draw in the U.S.—even if it would rather not. But analysts have long warned that it would be dangerous to assume Iran has no means to retaliate.

A full-scale war between Iran and Israel has long represented one of many geopolitical planners’ worst-case scenarios. A conflict that damaged global oil supply or shipping would quickly reverberate in the U.S. and across the world by quickly raising oil prices and sending investors selling stocks for safe-haven assets.

Oil prices spiked immediately, with West Texas Intermediate spiking 8.3%, to around $73.29 a barrel, and Brent crude jumped 8%, to around $74.54 a barrel. Stock futures sank late Thursday evening with S&P 500 futures were down 1.8%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 700 points, or 1.6%.

There were no immediate indications that Israel struck Iranian oil facilities, which could help markets avoid further losses.

That could change if the U.S. is drawn into war.

Write to Matt Peterson at matt.peterson@dowjones.com

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