Israel’s enemy in Yemen proves hard for US to deter
Summary
The Iranian-backed rebels have kept up a steady drumbeat of attacks in the Red Sea on commercial shipping despite a U.S. campaign to stop them.
Despite hundreds of American and allied strikes and the deployment of a U.S. Navy flotilla to the Red Sea, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have kept up a steady drumbeat of attacks on commercial shipping passing through the vital waterway and lobbing missiles at Israel.
Other Iranian-backed groups, from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon to the now-deposed regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, have all stopped fighting, at least for now.
Yet the Houthis, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, continue to disrupt global trade, causing billions of dollars in losses and forcing shippers to reroute cargo or run a gantlet of missiles and drones. They say they won’t stop until Israel stops fighting in Gaza.
A U.S.-led coalition has destroyed about 450 Houthi drones, a U.S. defense official said. U.S. National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said the coalition has suppressed some antiship missile attacks, and is also using diplomatic pressure and sanctions to stop the group’s illicit procurement.
Still, Red Sea trade routes remain paralyzed. Two Houthi missile strikes slipped through Israel’s air defenses last week. The U.S. military struck Houthi command centers and weapons caches on Saturday night in response.
The Houthis are “sinking ships and killing civilian mariners that are in no way related to Israel or Gaza, and even attacking vessels delivering crucial food and humanitarian assistance to the people of Yemen," Savett said.
As one of Iran’s last allies standing, their stature has been boosted in Tehran’s axis of resistance—its network of regional militias hostile to Israel and the West. Some analysts say they are concerned Iran could now focus more resources on funding and training the group.
“The Houthis don’t care about what they lose as Yemenis," said Osamah Al Rawhani, a director for the Yemen-based Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, an independent think tank. “They want to win as a militia and take on global powers."
The Houthis have withstood a nearly decadelong campaign by Saudi Arabia aimed at unseating them. At the same time, Iran and Hezbollah helped turn the group into a technologically sophisticated force able to target oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
“In 2004, they were a besieged group hiding in the mountains," said Mohammed Albasha, a U.S.-based Middle East security analyst for Basha Report LLC. “Now, they’re chasing U.S. carriers with drones and missiles and striking 2,000 kilometers away in central Israel."
Yemen is the Arab world’s poorest country and more than half of its population of 34 million need humanitarian assistance, including for hunger, according to the United Nations. About two-thirds of Yemenis live under Houthi control, according to the State Department.
Fighting Israel boosts the Houthis’ domestic popularity and distracts from Yemen’s dismal economic situation, which the rebel militia has done little to improve since consolidating their Islamist authoritarian rule after capturing Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, in 2014.
They “don’t have a lot to lose," said Yoel Guzansky, a former Gulf expert for Israel’s National Security Council and now at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “They cannot be deterred."
The Houthis are considerably less experienced and less well-armed than other Iranian allies like Hezbollah. But in recent months, U.S. and international officials have expressed concern that the Houthis have gained access to more sophisticated missile and drone technology from Iran.
Russia has provided targeting data for the rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea and is considering delivering antiship missiles to the Houthis, U.S. officials said.
“The scale, nature and extent of transfers of diverse military materiel and technology provided to the Houthis from external sources, including financial support and training of its combatants, is unprecedented," a United Nations report said in November.
The Houthis “are getting scary," William LaPlante, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said last month. “I’m just shocked" at technologies they now have access to, he said.
Experts say that the Houthis on Saturday fired a derivative of an Iranian-made ballistic missile with a maneuverable re-entry vehicle. The Israeli military is currently investigating how the missile evaded the country’s multilayered aerial defense system.
So far, the Houthis’ fight against Israel, while persistent, has also been limited in impact. Israel has intercepted most of the more than 200 missiles and drones the Houthis have fired toward it in the past year.
