Maduro is gone. What’s next for Venezuela?
Trump says America will ‘run the country’ for now. A successful transition will require U.S. leadership.
The skies over Caracas lit up early Saturday morning as the U.S. struck Venezuelan military installations and key infrastructure in a bid to remove dictator Nicolás Maduro from power.
The operation suppressed Venezuelan air defenses, then pulverized military targets including Fort Tiuna, a key stronghold of regime leadership, La Carlota military airport and communication towers. As U.S. special forces penetrated the security ring around Mr. Maduro’s quarters, sources say many Cuban guards were killed or injured.
At 4:21 a.m. President Trump posted that Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, had been arrested by the U.S. and taken out of the country. A photo circulated of a humiliated Mr. Maduro in a rumpled track suit and handcuffs in U.S. custody.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro threw a tizzy at the news, as did the Communist regime in Havana, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula" da Silva and some congressional Democrats. How dare the U.S. depose a sitting dictator? Mr. Petro’s plea for peace was especially rich given his history as an M-19 terrorist.
Millions of Venezuelan expat communities around the world erupted in celebration. For the first time in a quarter-century of authoritarian chavismo, a return to democracy and pluralism is possible. Venezuelans want to go home.
But the job isn’t finished. Mr. Trump acknowledged as much on Saturday at a Mar-a-Lago press conference: The U.S., he said, “is going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition." That wasn’t expected, and how it will work is for now a mystery. Yes, there were U.S. boots on the ground in this operation, but not nearly enough to enforce law and order. Where do we go from here?
The ambiguity is unsettling. Nevertheless, it’s a good sign that Mr. Trump doesn’t think Mr. Maduro’s capture is the end of the task at hand. The transition needs U.S. leadership and the president said he’s ready to provide it.
Caracas was quiet on Saturday afternoon and the opposition, which has been preparing for this moment for more than a year under the leadership of Nobel Prize Winner María Corina Machado, is in wait-and-see mode.
The regime has been decapitated. But some Maduro henchmen are digging in. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, the most ruthless member of the top echelon, went into hiding, his reputation for cowardice intact. From there he called Venezuelans to the streets to protest against the U.S. His enforcers were spotted cruising Caracas slums. People mostly stayed inside. Unconfirmed reports say that some military higher-ups fled the country.
Mr. Maduro had been given a chance to exit the country without violence, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the press conference. Mr. Trump said the Venezuelan had even considered the offer. His decision to decline left the U.S. president little choice but to deliver the shock and awe. Now Mr. Maduro and Ms. Flores will be tried in federal court in the Southern District of New York on drug-trafficking charges and face long prison sentences if convicted.
Next on the U.S. hit list is Delcy Rodríguez, Mr. Maduro’s second in command. She has reportedly been sworn in as the new dictator and is therefore commander in chief. Sources say the Trump administration is leaning on her to coordinate a negotiated transition.
Venezuelan democrats are convinced they need the Venezuelan army, navy and air force to establish a peaceful handover of power and new elections. They learned from watching the mistake of “de-Baathification" of Iraq in 2003. Ms. Rodríguez’s mission, should she choose to accept it, is to persuade Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino to step down and order the generals to jump sides. Her future undoubtedly depends on it.
Standing in the way are Mr. Cabello’s die-hard goons, who are not the surrendering type. Mr. Cabello may be too scared to move. The U.S. has shown it can solve that problem.
If Ms. Rodríguez and Mr. Padrino want to avoid prison and violence, it’s rumored their cooperation might help them. The U.S. favors a peaceful transition. But according to Mr. Trump, a second “stage" of U.S. intervention isn’t out of the question.
The democratic opposition hasn’t called its supporters to the streets for fear that they might be gunned down by Mr. Cabello’s true believers. But it’s notable the military hasn’t mobilized in the capital. Normally, tanks roll and brigades march when a nation is under attack. Could it be the brass isn’t sure the rank and file will engage in the repression the regime depends on?
Mr. Trump’s candor in telling Colombia’s Mr. Petro that he could be next, in a manner of speaking, was refreshing. Mr. Rubio’s message to the Cuban regime that its bosses may want to sleep with one eye open also sounded right. But the president’s claim that Ms. Machado isn’t respected by Venezuelans was gratuitous and uninformed and made him look small. She’s wildly popular and has unified the country.
And while Mr. Trump talked a lot about oil and American cocaine consumption, he never mentioned that some 900 political prisoners are rotting in Venezuelan jails and in danger. They could have used a presidential shout-out and even a warning to those who might harm them.
The argument in favor of democracy is built on evidence that Venezuelans want it. They voted for it in the July 2024 presidential election, choosing opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez with nearly 70% of the vote. Mr. Trump has the moral high ground on this one. He could do worse than plant a flag in it.
Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
