Mike Waltz’s demotion is a loss for defence hawks

On 30th April Mike Waltz, America’s national security adviser, took his turn in what has become a ritual at Donald Trump’s cabinet meetings: with the cameras rolling the top department heads outdo one another in their praise of the president. Mr Waltz’s turn was hardly the most sycophantic, but he still celebrated Mr Trump for killing terrorists, bringing home American hostages, assembling a great cabinet and restoring the country’s international standing.

The next day Mr Trump removed Mr Waltz and nominated him as ambassador to the United Nations, a soft landing but a demotion. Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, will double as national security adviser “in the interim”, the president said on his social-media site. The change marks the first big upheaval in Mr Trump’s defence and international-relations team. Mr Waltz lasted just over 100 days in his role. (Mike Flynn, Mr Trump’s first national security adviser during his first term, lasted just 22 days.) It is unlikely that whatever regime follows Mr Waltz’s departure will be more stable.

The exact cause of Mr Waltz’s new appointment is unclear. He had seen his stock decline since accidentally including Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor of the Atlantic, in a group chat on Signal to discuss sensitive military operations in Yemen. The shakeup follows the firing of several of Mr Waltz’s lieutenants in recent weeks over alleged disloyalty to Mr Trump. Laura Loomer, a conspiracy theorist, had met the president to argue for a cull.

The departure comes at a pivotal time. In recent days Mr Trump has expressed frustration with Russia while finally reaching a mineral-rights agreement with Ukraine. The administration continues to strike the Houthis in Yemen and Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, has called out Iran for its support for the group. Yet nuclear negotiations with Iranian officials are also under way. Uncertainty about America’s defence posture around the world, and particularly in Asia, persists.

In his efforts to make deals with Iran and to resolve Ukraine’s war while normalising relations with Russia, Mr Trump has wavered between dovish rhetoric and threats. Mr Waltz was in the hawkish, internationalist camp, at least by virtue of his background. The former Green Beret once worked for Dick Cheney, the bête noire of isolationist conservatives. Yet he had adapted to Mr Trump’s agenda. He publicly chastised Ukrainians and privately voiced scepticism about whether Israel should strike Iran. At the same time Mr Waltz pushed for tough sanctions against Russia if it failed to come to the table over Ukraine; as the Signal chat showed, he supported strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Mr Waltz’s deputy, Alex Wong, a moderate Republican who worked on issues related to North Korea during Mr Trump’s first term, will also leave the White House, according to media reports. His departure will disquiet American allies, particularly in Asia. If Ivan Kanapathy, the National Security Council’s senior director for Asia and another target of Ms Loomer, also leaves, it will be seen as a further loss for internationalist Republican hawks.

The role of national security adviser does not require Senate confirmation; Mr Rubio, a former senator, has already been comfortably confirmed as secretary of state. The political ease of Mr Trump’s moves may partly explain why Mr Waltz lost his job before Mr Hegseth, who shared details about strikes in the group chat and has presided over turmoil at the Pentagon. Although manifestly unqualified for that job, Mr Hegseth squeezed through Congress’s confirmation gauntlet, and Mr Trump may not want to deal with that again so soon.

The changes appear to leave Steve Witkoff, the billionaire real-estate investor and golfing buddy of the president who has served as his globe-hopping special envoy, as one of Mr Trump’s most important foreign policy advisers. He already operates as a shadow secretary of state, personally visiting world leaders on Mr Trump’s behalf despite his lack of foreign-policy expertise. He and Mr Rubio say they collaborate closely. Mr Witkoff has made many political enemies during his short time in public service by embracing Russia-friendly narratives and making pro-Israel Republicans uneasy.

Whoever forms Mr Rubio’s team or follows him at the helm at the NSC can be sure that Ms Loomer will be watching. “VETTING MATTERS,” she posted on X after the news broke. “Don’t ever forget that.”