Netanyahu, Trump to hold talks on Gaza cease-fire and wider middle-east strategy

Summary
Meeting could provide an early signal about the state of their sometimes wary relationship.WASHINGTON—The future of the precarious Gaza cease-fire is expected to dominate much of the closed-door discussion when President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet in the Oval Office Tuesday.
A commitment from Netanyahu to negotiate an extension and potentially a long-term cessation of hostilities would give Trump a diplomatic win, and could secure the release of remaining hostages, including some Americans.
But ending the 16-month-old war poses a challenge for Netanyahu, whose government is divided over whether the Israeli military operation in Gaza should be drawn to a close with Hamas badly weakened but not destroyed.
With such high stakes, the talks could provide an early indication of the state of the sometimes wary Trump-Netanyahu relationship.
Indirect talks on extending the 42-day fighting pause were supposed to begin Monday in Qatar, but Netanyahu was in Washington, delaying a decision on engaging with Hamas until after his meeting with Trump.
Trump himself seemed uncertain about the prospects for the cease-fire, telling reporters in the Oval Office Monday: “I have no guarantees that the peace is going to hold."
But he has also seemed intent on not letting the Gaza war drag on, bogging down his presidency in prolonged negotiations the way the Biden administration was—a message Trump is likely to make clear Tuesday, analysts said.
“Fundamentally, this is about laying down a marker for Netanyahu that he is going to have to be much more accommodating to Trump’s preferences than he was to Biden’s," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official who is at the Atlantic Council think tank.
Trump took credit for helping to broker the cease-fire agreement, which was negotiated before he took office. He has floated the idea of moving the more than two million Palestinians in Gaza out of the territory so it can be rebuilt, a suggestion that has been rebuffed by Arab states even as it has been welcomed by far-right Israeli politicians.
Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff sounded more optimistic than Trump Monday. “It is holding so far," he said of the cease-fire, “so we’re certainly hopeful."
Netanyahu has said he is prepared to restart the fighting in Gaza and the country’s military is seeking to further isolate Hamas from the civilian population, military analysts said. He is under pressure from many in his own Likud party and members of his governing coalition not to accept a complete halt to the conflict.
But he may be willing to extend the cease-fire in return for a commitment from Trump to diminish Iran’s regional influence and prevent the regime from moving closer to becoming a nuclear weapons state, a goal that would require intensified U.S. economic pressure and possibly military action.
Before boarding the plane in Israel, he told reporters that his country’s operations against Iranian proxies in the Middle East had “redrawn the map" of the region. “I believe that working closely with President Trump, we can redraw it even further and for the better."
For Netanyahu the meeting is one of the most important for an Israeli prime minister in years, said Amir Avivi, a former senior security official and founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank. “It revolves around building an overall strategy for how the Middle East will be shaped for decades."
Tehran hasn’t made a decision to build a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. They are within weeks of being able to make enough nuclear material for a bomb, though it would take longer to make an actual nuclear device.
Trump and his national-security team have discussed the possibility of striking Iranian facilities, though the president has said little to indicate he is eager to use force and is open to negotiations over Tehran’s program and proxy network. Netanyahu has long tried to convince Trump that military force is the most effective way to disarm Iran.
Trump’s plans for Iran are perhaps the murkiest part of his Middle East agenda, at one moment appearing to encourage Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, something that could certainly trigger a broader war, while simultaneously saying he wants to avoid a war and cut a deal with Tehran.
The two leaders share a grand vision of normalizing ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a diplomatic goal that could reshape the Middle East and end Israel’s isolation by Arab states. But a hurdle remains because Riyadh has made establishing a clear pathway to a Palestinian state a condition for recognizing Israel.
On Monday, Israel’s powerful finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said he would oppose normalization with Saudi Arabia if Israel had to recognize Palestinian national rights, if Israel’s ability to topple Hamas was impaired, or if the deal strengthened the Palestinian Authority. The PA governs Palestinians in the West Bank and is favored by Riyadh to lead Palestinians into statehood in Gaza and the West Bank.
But Netanyahu may not be a captive to his current coalition since opposition parties have vowed to keep his government alive as long as he pursues the release of Israeli hostages.
Netanyahu may even prefer to shake up his coalition or go to early elections, said Abraham Diskin, professor emeritus at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University. “Coalition considerations are secondary," Diskin said.
Despite Netanyahu’s pressures back home, in the Oval Office, Trump will aim to persuade the Israeli leader to adopt his vision, or at least reframe his own.
“I’d be shocked if Netanyahu leaves without a promise to Trump that he will honor the second phase of the cease-fire," said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration. “Trump will give him hell if he doesn’t."
Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com, Dov Lieber at dov.lieber@wsj.com and Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com