Pakistan's politics revolves around two men who detest each other. And just as in a good drama, their fates are entwined. One is Imran Khan, the swashbuckling all-rounder who led Pakistan to cricketing glory and subsequently went on to become prime minister in 2018. Mr Khan rode to power with the backing of the armed forces, who had, as they periodically do in Pakistan, grown tired of the old ruling parties. But he proved to be an erratic and often alarmingly messianic premier. He upset the military and political establishments so much that he was ousted in 2022, and is now serving a 14-year prison sentence on a trumped-up corruption charge. Behind bars, rather than dealing with tricky neighbours and IMF loans, his popularity has soared.
Where the buck now stops
The government was unpopular even before Pakistan’s economy was walloped by the Iran war. Since then fuel and energy prices have soared; in May year-on-year inflation reached 11.7%. Last month the ruling PML-N party lost ground in an election in Gilgit-Baltistan, a northern region. In time the country’s military leaders may feel the need for fresh faces. “If you look at Pakistan’s history, it is clear that you can’t keep an unpopular system in place for ever,” says Ali Zafar, a PTI senator. Some within Mr Khan’s party believe that they can plot a way back to working alongside the armed forces. But that has caused a rift over strategy. Mr Khan’s family have accused senior PTI figures of “complete silence” over his ongoing legal cases.
Currently, the sworn enemies coming to an agreement is a distant prospect. In fact, although the PTI has been targeted most, figures from more establishment parties say it is becoming harder to criticise the government. “The space for opposition is closing,” says Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister and member of the broader opposition alliance. Field Marshal Munir is not yet in any mood for compromise. The latest sign of that came last month, when courts handed down long sentences to four PTI leaders and a high-profile Baloch activist.
Mr Khan, for his part, remains defiant. Perhaps he is playing a long game. He tells his family that two hours of exercise a day means he has never been in better shape. The last time he issued a public message, via a visitor in December, he branded his nemesis “mentally unstable” and called on Pakistanis to “break the chains of slavery”. Radio silence thereafter suggests that his mindset has not changed. The two men are locked in a “battle of nerves”, says Aleema. Her brother’s outlook would not have sounded out of place on an Elizabethan stage: “Liberty or death”.