Pakistan’s nuclear strategy shifts as US realigns ties in Asia

The U.S. last week imposed sanctions on four entities involved in Pakistan’s missile program, including the National Development Complex, which it said oversees Pakistan’s development of ballistic missiles. Deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said the sanctions were imposed after Washington and Islamabad failed to make progress in confidential talks.

U.S. intelligence points to efforts by Pakistan to develop equipment to test large rocket motors, according to White House officials. “Just looking at a map and looking at ranges, you know, we believe that this is fundamentally focused on us," said Finer at an event sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Arms Control Association in Washington on Thursday.

Pakistan hasn’t publicly acknowledged developing long-range or intercontinental ballistic missiles. Its longest-range publicly known missile is the Shaheen-III, tested in 2021, with a range of about 1,700 miles.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Tuesday said that there was no justification for the sanctions and that the country’s nuclear program is only for defense.

Over the weekend, the country’s foreign ministry called the claim that it has hostile intentions toward the U.S. “irrational" and said that Pakistan maintains the right to develop capabilities to deal with evolving threats.

For decades, Pakistan’s strategic national security planning has focused largely on India, which it views as a threat. Political experts say that there has been a subtle change in its posture over the past decade.

The U.S. and Pakistan were unlikely but close partners in a relationship shaped largely by U.S. objectives in Afghanistan during the Cold War, and after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. But U.S. frustrations grew over what Washington said was Pakistan’s unofficial support for Taliban insurgents, and more recently over the country’s ties with China, which has bankrolled billions of dollars of infrastructure in the country.

In contrast, the U.S. and India have drawn closer in the past decade over common concerns about China’s economic and military might.

“In that situation, Pakistan’s hard-liners, Pakistan’s hawks, think they need to think beyond just today and tomorrow," said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S. and a scholar at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, D.C. “They have to think about what happens if there is a global conflict in which India is aligned with the U.S. and Pakistan is considered as a partner of China."

Ashley J. Tellis, an expert on Asian geopolitics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has argued that Pakistan’s objectives have evolved from “India-specific" to “India-plus." He attributes that shift in part to the 2011 U.S. military raid that killed Osama bin Laden, mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, in Pakistan, and believes that Islamabad seeks the ability to deter any future U.S. intervention on its territory.

“This objective goes beyond Pakistan’s traditional focus on India," he said.

India has said little on the sanctions or comments from the White House. Asked about the sanctions at a briefing last week, India’s foreign ministry spokesman said India follows “all developments which have a bearing on our security and our interest very closely."

The moves aren’t likely to affect Pakistan’s missile programs directed at countering India, which rely on short and midrange weapons. The Shaheen-III missile in theory gives Pakistan the ability to reach India’s far eastern Andamans and Nicobar archipelago.

Zamir Akram, a former Pakistan diplomat at the United Nations, said there are both defensive and nonmilitary reasons for Pakistan to work on the types of technology that can power a long-range missile, including the ability to remain on par with India’s capabilities.

India’s military objectives, in turn, are increasingly focused on China.

India’s Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile is capable of striking targets at 3,000 miles with a high degree of accuracy, which would put major Chinese cities in range. India and China have a long-disputed Himalayan border and engaged in a deadly clash there in 2020.

The technology could also be put to use for an indigenous space-launch system, said Akram. Presently Pakistan relies on China for satellite launches.

“We cannot foreclose the option for developing a long-range missile if needed sometime in the future," he said. But the idea that such a development would be a threat to the U.S. is “ludicrous," he said.

Last week’s U.S. designations were the latest in a series of actions intended to restrict Pakistan’s secret missile development, with several of the previous steps focused on Chinese companies supplying dual-use materials to the country. Pakistan has long relied on Chinese help for its defense program.

The U.S. says that Pakistan has worked to acquire items for a long-range missile program, including special vehicle chassis and missile-testing equipment.

These sanctions marked the first time that the U.S. has sanctioned a Pakistan state enterprise involved in missile development.

“The administration is trying to ring a bell in Islamabad," said Haqqani. “That seems to suggest to me that Pakistan has already made enough progress to get the Americans to react in this way."