Planned US-Russia talks over Ukraine throw Europe into crisis

France's President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security at The Elysee Presidential Palace in Paris on February 17, 2025. (Photo: AFP)
France's President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer before an informal summit of European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine and European security at The Elysee Presidential Palace in Paris on February 17, 2025. (Photo: AFP)

Summary

  • French President Emmanuel Macron convenes emergency meeting of military powers as Trump prepares to negotiate Ukraine’s future without them.

PARIS—Europe’s main military powers were scrambling to reclaim a seat at the negotiating table after the Trump administration sidelined them from talks with Russia over the future of Ukraine and the continent’s broader security.

President Emmanuel Macron held an emergency meeting of European leaders inside the Élysée Palace on Monday, moments after he held a 20-minute call with President Trump on Monday. The flurry of diplomacy aimed to show that Europe still has a role to play in resolving the Ukraine war—even as senior U.S. officials traveled to Saudi Arabia this week for direct talks with Russia.

The idea that the fate of Europe might be decided without direct European participation has stung the continent’s capitals. It has also raised pressure on Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other leaders to define how they plan to contribute to any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

In recent days, the Trump administration has asked European governments to fill out a questionnaire, clarifying whether they are willing to send troops into Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force and what other capabilities they can provide as part of a security guarantee for Ukraine. The leaders must also discuss how to increase European military spending and fund longer-term assistance for Kyiv.

For months European countries have dithered. Only a handful of European countries—Britain, France and Sweden—have so far signaled they are willing to send troops into Ukraine as part of a peace deal. When a core group of leaders gathered in Brussels in December, they shied away from any serious discussion of what security guarantees Europe could offer, deciding it was best to wait for Trump to take office and lay out his plans.

“The Europeans knew, but they were in a state of denial," said Élie Tenenbaum, director of the Paris-based IFRI Security Studies Center.

Europe is hamstrung in part by an erosion of public support for the leaders of its two biggest economies: Germany and France. Germany is slated to hold elections this Sunday that are likely to lead to weeks of negotiations over a future government. Macron’s government, meanwhile, is cash-strapped and lacking a majority in Parliament. The constraints have hobbled Macron’s yearlong push to expand military aid to Kyiv.

Even the scheduling of Monday’s Paris meeting was a challenge. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz insisted on leaving early—to continue campaigning—while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived at sundown.

Time is short for the Europeans. Senior Russian and U.S. officials are due to start talks on Tuesday in Riyadh. U.S. officials told the Europeans at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend that they didn’t see a direct role for them in the negotiations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed that view in comments on Monday.

Ukraine hasn’t been invited to join Tuesday’s discussions although Washington has assured Kyiv that negotiations to end the war will be conducted between Ukraine and Russia, with Washington mediating. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine won’t accept any agreements that come out of the U.S.-Russian talks without its presence.

Hovering over all the talks is the question of who will foot the bill for Ukraine’s security. Washington wants Europe to drum up additional funds to ensure Ukraine receives enough military assistance to keep up the fight while negotiations are under way with Russia.

European leaders have committed to a major buildup in domestic military spending and to rebuild defense industries that have shrunk since the Cold War ended. Trump has said European countries should be spending 5% of their budget on defense. The average EU country’s military spending has risen in recent years but it currently stands at 2%.

Write to Stacy Meichtry at Stacy.Meichtry@wsj.com, Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and Nick Kostov at nick.kostov@dowjones.com

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