Resilient Trump lifted by improved view of the economy, WSJ poll finds

The set of turbulent recent events, which also has included the administration’s aggressive deportation program and the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, has failed either to dent or improve the public’s overall view of the president. Some 46% approve of his job performance—unchanged from April—with 52% disapproving.

The poll shows why the near-unshakeable backing of Trump’s Republican base is so valuable to him. With 88% of GOP voters approving of his job performance — and 66% strongly approving— he has been able to retain political potency in Congress and among much of the electorate when voters overall are dissatisfied with the country’s direction and disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, inflation, tariffs and other aspects of his agenda.

A majority of 52% oppose Trump’s landmark legislative achievement, the tax and domestic policy bill that narrowly passed in Congress, 10 percentage points higher than the share supporting it. More voters disapprove than approve of his handling of the economy and inflation, by 9 points and 11 points, respectively.

Disapproval of his tariffs agenda outweighs approval by 17 points. Even on immigration—Trump’s signature issue—voters give him tepid marks: By narrow margins of 3 points or less, voters disapprove when asked about his handling of “immigration" and approve of his handling of “illegal immigration." By 16 points, more voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction rather than on the right track, compared with a 10-point gap in April.

Voters are distinguishing between the direction of the country under Trump, however, and the direction of the economy, on which the poll finds a brightening outlook.

Some 47% in the survey rated the economy as excellent or good—a significant, 11-point leap from April and the most positive rating in Journal surveys dating to 2021. Some 51% of voters assessed the economy as not good or poor, compared with 63% who said so in April.

By 8 points, more voters say the economy is getting worse rather than better—a sour outlook, but markedly improved from the 26-point gap in April. Fewer also said that inflation was causing them major financial strains.

At 46%, Trump’s job approval rating is stronger than the 40% he drew at this point in his first term, and it sits at the upper end of the unusually narrow range that marked voter views of his performance during his first White House term.

By contrast, views of former Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden varied far more widely. Obama’s job-approval rating moved in a 20-point range, between 40% and 61%, and it stood at 45% at this point in his second term before he finished his time in office at 56%. Biden’s approval rating stood at 50% at this point in his term before sinking into the low 40s, NBC polling found.

“They called Reagan the Teflon president," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who conducted the Journal survey with Republican Tony Fabrizio, referring to the adage that bad news rarely stuck to former Republican President Ronald Reagan. “Trump has that in him, as well." While Trump stirs up plenty of controversies that could be politically damaging, he said, “they seldom bite him on the backside."

The Journal survey, conducted July 16-20, found high skepticism that the Justice Department has fully investigated the case of Jeffrey Epstein, the wealthy money manager who socialized with political figures, including Trump and former President Bill Clinton.

Trump has said their friendship ended before the financier was indicted on a charge of soliciting prostitution in 2006. A spokesman for Clinton recently referred to a 2019 statement that the former president had cut ties more than a decade before Epstein’s second arrest and didn’t know about Epstein’s alleged crimes.

Some 76% of voters in the new poll, including 64% of Republicans, said they believe the Justice Department is hiding important information from its findings in the Epstein investigation. Nearly half said they had no confidence in the department’s investigation, and an additional 21% said they had little confidence. Less than one-quarter said they had complete confidence or at least some confidence in the department’s investigation.

The Journal poll shows that the public remains open to persuasion on many aspects of Trump’s agenda, suggesting that the expected billions of dollars soon to be spent ahead of the 2026 midterm elections could change voter views of the president.

Voters strongly support some aspects of the GOP tax-and-spending legislation, with more than 70% supporting its new tax breaks for many workers who are paid by tips or get overtime. And as of now, voters are equivocal when asked about whether they would benefit, personally, from the bill. But the bill overall is seen as helping the wealthy and large corporations while hurting the poor and adding to the deficit.

Similarly, voters strongly approve of deporting people who are in the country illegally, but at the same time they disapprove of many of the methods Trump is using to do so. Narrow majorities say he has gone too far with his deportations and has crossed a line by deporting people without giving them legal protections or court hearings.

Asked about the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, a narrow plurality of 47% agreed with the statement that the June strikes were a good idea and reduced the nuclear threat from Iran. Some 43% saw the raid as a bad idea that risked drawing the U.S. into war.

One statistic in the survey stands out for showing the cohesiveness of Trump’s coalition: 45%. That is the share of voters—give or take a point—who hold positive views of the president, of many of his actions and of the people or institutions associated with him.

Some 45% have a favorable view of Trump personally, while about the same share hold favorable views of the Supreme Court; of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Health and Human Services secretary; and of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the primary immigration-enforcement agency. Some 44% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and inflation.

A similar share—45%—said Trump was bringing needed change to the country, while 51% agreed with the alternative statement that he was bringing chaos and dysfunction that would hurt the country.

One outlier: Pam Bondi, the attorney general, who has been the public face of the Epstein investigation. Some 30% of voters view her favorably, with 47% holding an unfavorable view.

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who didn’t work on the Journal survey, said that Trump’s 46% job approval rating was a mark of strength, even though a larger share, 52%, disapproves of his performance.

Because Americans are so polarized, parties focus on driving their most ardent voters to the polls. That means that a president with strong support from his base—such as Trump—can mobilize enough support to win elections, he said.

“In today’s politics, the mid-40s is the new 50%. In today’s hyperpartisan environment, if Trump can maintain support in the high 40s, we’ll have an incredibly competitive cycle in 2026," McInturff said, referring to next year’s midterms.

The Wall Street Journal poll of 1,500 registered voters was conducted July 16-20 by landline phone and cellphone, with some respondents contacted by text and invited to take the survey online. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Write to Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com