Shutdown risks becoming longest ever. Why the end is in sight.

Lawmakers returned early to their home states this weekend as Senate negotiators said there was little chance of a breakthrough before next week. But at least some senators have indicated that a resolution is in sight. Although Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) adjourned the Senate on Thursday, seeing little progress in negotiations, on Wednesday he told MSNBC that bipartisan talks had “ticked up significantly."

Some Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Jon Ossoff (D., Ga.), have said the pace of negotiations is quickening. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.) on Thursday told reporters he is “seeing some movement" as the talks progress.

While there is no guarantee an agreement is reached, the talks are the closest lawmakers have come. For the past month, Democrats have insisted that they won’t vote in favor of funding the government unless the bill includes an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire at the end of the year. Some Republicans say they want to consider extending the subsidies as well, but Thune has said he won’t hold those talks while the government is closed.

As of Saturday, the funding lapse will have lasted more than 31 days. It is almost certain to become the longest in history, beating the 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019 in President Donald Trump’s first term.

A number of events are amping up the pressure for a deal. Saturday is the first day of open enrollment for ACA plans in most states, and the expiration of subsidies for next year means many enrollees will likely see premiums skyrocket.

The White House also says the government this weekend will run out of funding for benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which helps low-income families buy food. A judge on Friday said the government must keep distributing benefits. On Tuesday, voters in Virginia and New Jersey will choose their next governor, while California is voting on a redistricting measure.

The shutdown’s effects have already begun to bleed into ordinary Americans’ lives. Airports across the country in the past week have had delays or ground stops due to staffing shortages in air-traffic control. Flight delays helped end the 2018-19 shutdown.

To break the logjam, centrist Democrats and Republicans are discussing not just a so-called continuing resolution that would fund the government in the short term but also long-term bipartisan spending bills to fund certain agencies. Thune in the past has said discussions on full-year bills, which would still need to be approved by the House of Representatives, shouldn’t happen while the government is closed. But by reaching agreements on both at once, Democratic lawmakers could point to the bills as a partial victory.

The funding-bill discussions could also create confidence among Democrats that Republican lawmakers will hold healthcare talks when the government reopens, said Beacon Policy Advisors in a note on Friday. Rather than attaching the subsidies to the bill, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) may have to settle for a promise for a vote on the subsidies in coming weeks, or the creation of a healthcare working group, the analysts wrote.

Analysts say that the best window for a deal is likely late next week, after the elections.

“This doesn’t end until enough pain points arrive," said Brian Gardner, Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, predicting that it might take the kinds of air-traffic disruptions seen in 2019 to end the stalemate. “We’re closer to the end than the beginning."

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com