The 11-Day Blitz by Syrian Rebels That Ended 50 Years of Assad Rule
Bashar al-Assad called for help from Russia, Iran and his own military in his last hours as Syria’s leader, learning he had run out of allies and loyalty.
Entering the weekend, Syria President Bashar al-Assad showed no signs of yielding.
As armed rebels closed in Saturday on Damascus, Assad ordered his forces to defend the Syrian capital, seemingly confident the military would come to his rescue, according to Syrian officials familiar with the matter.
By late Saturday, Assad had vanished. He didn’t show up for a prepared address to the nation, and his cabinet had no idea where he was. They learned with the rest of the world that Assad had escaped the country hours ahead of the rebels who captured Syria.
The toppling of Assad’s regime, ending 50 years of his family’s rule, revealed how badly Syria’s army had been hollowed out by years of corruption, defections to the rebellion and the country’s economic crisis. Recruitment had declined, and Syrian men dodged conscription.
The military since early in the civil war had depended heavily on outside forces to reinforce its lines. Iran and the Syrian regime brought in militias from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia had provided warplanes, air defenses and military advisers.
Yet, as Assad dialed for help from foreign governments in his last hours as Syria’s leader, he found he had run out of allies and military allegiance. The swift fall of Damascus confirmed how the regime was “in worse shape than we thought,” said Aron Lund, a security analyst with the Swedish Defense Research Agency, a government think tank. The government received “a knockout blow early on,” he said, and never recovered.
The rebels in 11 days accomplished what had appeared impossible after 13 years of brutal combat with Assad’s forces. Early Sunday, demonstrators crowded streets in the capital to celebrate the regime’s quick surrender. “I was really fearful of the battle for Damascus,” a 37-year-old resident said.
Assad’s government forces had been low on supplies, exhausted from years of war and reeling from defeat after rebels captured one city after the next, beginning with Aleppo on Nov. 30.
In a small pocket of territory still held by rebels in Syria’s northwest, rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani was waiting for the moment to strike, reading the shifting geopolitical winds and probing for weaknesses.
The time came when Israel launched its military offensive against Hezbollah in September. The Lebanese militia had played an instrumental role in bolstering Assad’s forces but was battered after thousands of Israeli airstrikes that destroyed much of its stocks of weapons and killed many of its leaders.
“Even before they reached the capital, the regime fell and Syrian Arab Army troops deserted their positions, the police deserted their positions,” said Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, a Syrian-American opposition activist in Washington. “And Bashar Al Assad just fled.”
Open door
Assad’s downfall was set in motion when the Syrian president moved to crush an uprising against his rule in 2011. After his security forces opened fire on protesters, popular protest turned to armed insurrection.
Russia and Iran had helped Assad claw back more than two-thirds of the country’s territory following more than a decade of civil war. During that time, Arab states that cut ties with the regime had begun to bring Assad back into the fold. Western nations that had sought to topple him were fatigued.
Then Assad’s strongest backers became mired elsewhere. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted Moscow to shift military hardware out of Syria. Iran became entangled in conflict after Hamas launched its deadly Oct. 7 attack last year in Israel.
An Israeli offensive aimed at rolling back Iranian influence pummeled Iran’s network of militia allies in the region, devastating Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and striking Iran’s shadow military network in Syria.
All that opened the door for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group led by Jawlani and known as HTS. In the four years since the end of the last major Russian and Syrian government offensive, the rebel group had been building its military capabilities. HTS started a military academy and began manufacturing weapons, including drones that were used in the successful offensive.
Aleppo, which had been Syria’s largest city before the war and a major commercial hub, was a symbol of the revolution. Rebels there held out for four years, withstanding a siege, as well as bombing by Russians and regime forces until they were expelled from the city in 2016.
The rebels’ capture of Aleppo dealt a significant blow to the government. Before Assad addressed the defeat, Jawlani passed through a throng of supporters to ascend the steps of the ancient Aleppo citadel and promise a new era for Syria.
“I don’t think they would have thought they would take Aleppo in four days,” said Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of a recent book on HTS, which is designated a terrorist group by the U.S. for its past ties to Al-Qaeda. Jawlani has said he and his organization have given up extremism.
After the fall of Aleppo, Assad tried to muster support for his sagging military forces, appealing to Russia and Iran. The Russians launched airstrikes that dropped off within days.
Iran told Assad help for his regime would be limited in nature, if it came at all. Iranian officials blamed Assad for not preparing for the rebel assault and said they weren’t able to send military reinforcements because of Israel, Syrian officials said. An Iranian plane heading for Syria earlier this week made a U-turn because of the threat of Israeli airstrikes, the officials said.
Rather than lend aid, Iran ordered its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its affiliated militias to stay out of the fight, according to Syrian officials. Iran then coordinated a safe exit for its personnel and cut a deal for its fighters to peacefully hand territory over to the rebels.
“Both Russia and large parts of the Syrian regime, including senior political and military figures, recognized that Assad’s circle was a sinking ship,” said Lina Khatib, a Middle East security expert and associate fellow at Chatham House, a policy institute in London.
After taking Aleppo, the rebels streamed south in a convoy of pickup trucks en route to Hama, the next in a line of cities that Assad had fought to hold earlier in the war. There, a fierce battle unfolded with casualties on both sides.
The rebels captured Hama within days.
On the night of Dec. 5, the rebels assembled an armed convoy on the road to Homs, poised to cut off Assad’s access to military bases on the Mediterranean coast and the Lebanese border.
Homegrown
Panic spread in Damascus after rebels overran Hama, said the 37-year-old resident who feared a battle for the capital. He tried to get his pet cat’s paperwork in order on Friday, he said, in case he had to flee the country.
Another resident who drove through the city during the hours before it was captured said he offered a ride to a soldier. “He was terrified,” the resident said.
On city streets, people lined up outside shops to buy products that were quickly disappearing from shelves. Prices surged, and the feelings reminded the 37-year-old resident of what it was like during the civil war’s early days.
After returning home, he said, he fell asleep before midnight, trying to drown out the sounds outside with white noise.
At about 3 a.m. in Damascus, the sounds of chants and gunfire woke him. The men outside were locals, he said, among those drawn into action by the rebels’ victories. The advance had awakened activist networks and underground rebel groups that had been dormant for years.
“It was a lot more homegrown than I had expected,” the man said. “That’s when I started to feel extremely cheerful.”
Yet, as the hours passed, his fears of chaos grew. Unidentified armed men knocked on the door of an acquaintance and asked about his religion. A neighbor returned home to find that armed men had broken down a door and looted it.
A nearby government building was looted, despite instructions from rebel leaders against violating public property. A curfew was imposed on the capital from 4 p.m. to 5 a.m., yet the gunfire continued.
An array of forces opposed to Assad had joined the fight, creating a pincer movement on the capital. Kurdish-led militias seized government territory south of the river Euphrates. U.S.-backed militants pushed toward the capital from a remote outpost in the desert.
Some military leaders, believing the war had been lost, placed their hopes in a possible agreement for a transition of power instead of standing and fighting.
National security leaders ordered a peaceful handover to rebels without telling Assad, Syrian officials said, and he was soon on a plane to Russia.
With Assad gone, Jawlani entered Damascus on Sunday and strolled among cheering supporters at a grassy park and an eighth-century mosque, hailing the takeover as historic.
“We are determined to continue the path that the Syrian people started in 2011,” Jawlani told the crowd. “The future is ours.”
Stephen Kalin contributed to this article.
Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com, Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com and Isabel Coles at isabel.coles@wsj.com
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Business NewsGlobalThe 11-Day Blitz by Syrian Rebels That Ended 50 Years of Assad Rule
First Published:9 Dec 2024, 06:56 AM IST
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