The 11th-hour campaign to land Trump a Nobel Peace Prize

“He deserves it!" Netanyahu wrote.

The mocked-up image was a late salvo in an international campaign to persuade the secretive five-person Norwegian committee that decides on the award to make Trump the fifth American president to win it.

He has been fixated on the prize, and for months, domestic supporters and international leaders seeking his favor have joined him in a vociferous campaign. With the committee set to announce this year’s recipient Friday, that effort is likely to fall short, analysts said.

“A public candidature and campaigning like the one that we have seen this year is highly unusual," said Nina Graeger, the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. The peace prize “honors sustainable and lasting peace," she said. “In view of that, I do not think that it is likely that Trump receives it for this year."

As unorthodox as Trump’s campaign has been, it isn’t without merit. The president, his supporters, heads of state and groups such as the families of the Gaza hostages, argue that his efforts to negotiate cease-fires in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere warrant serious consideration for the award. They have noted his contributions to peace efforts between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo; Cambodia and Thailand; India and Pakistan; Serbia and Kosovo; Egypt and Ethiopia; and Armenia and Azerbaijan.

If a Gaza cease-fire results in a cessation to the war, Trump’s lobbying, however unconventional, could appear justified.

“I made seven deals, and now it’s solved the wars—one going 31 years, one going 34 years, one going 35 years, one going 10 years," Trump said at the White House on Thursday. “I made seven deals. This would be number eight. He added that he didn’t know what the Nobel committee “is going to do, really, but I know this: nobody in history has solved eight wars in a period of nine months."

Trump’s campaign for the prize has attracted foreign leaders and domestic politicians down a new avenue to his good graces.

At an August cabinet meeting, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said there was only one thing he wished for: “that the Nobel committee finally gets its act together and realizes that you are the single finest candidate since this Nobel award was ever talked about to receive that award."

The families of some Israeli hostages held in Gaza have thrown their weight behind Trump, arguing in a recent letter to the Nobel committee that “in this past year, no leader or organization has contributed more to peace around the world than President Trump. While many have spoken eloquently about peace, he has achieved it. While others have offered empty promises, he has delivered tangible results that have saved countless lives."

The last-minute lobbying is unlikely to affect the committee’s decision, analysts said.

Government officials, university professors, current and former committee members and past Nobel Peace Prize winners are among those who might submit nominations to the five-member committee appointed by the Norwegian Parliament to select recipients. One may not nominate oneself.

Beginning in September, the committee received 338 nominations for this year’s prize—for 244 individuals and 94 organizations—up from 286 nominees last year and short of the all-time high of 376 candidates in 2016.

The nomination deadline for this year’s prize was Jan. 31, which was 11 days after Trump was sworn in for his second term. In February and March, the committee narrowed the candidates to a shortlist of what is typically 20 to 30 people. The committee doesn’t confirm the identities of nominees.

Perhaps fueling Trump’s ambitions, President Barack Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009—about nine months into his first term—for, according to the committee, creating “a new climate in international politics." Many Republicans accused the committee of politicizing the prize two years after former Vice President Al Gore, like Obama, a Democrat, won the award for raising awareness about climate change. Some said that neither man had made significant contributions to peace.

During last year’s presidential campaign, Trump said that if his name were Obama, he would have received the Nobel Peace Prize “in 10 seconds."

The president was put up for the award by allies during his first term. Trump’s name was submitted after he met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in a bid to restrain the country’s nuclear-weapons program and, later, in the wake of the Abraham Accords, a landmark deal during Trump’s first term that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries.

A member of the Norwegian Parliament nominated Trump for the 2021 prize, which went to Maria Ressa and Dmitry Muratov, journalists from the Philippines and Russia, respectively.

Alfred Nobel, the Swedish inventor of dynamite, established the peace prize in his will, saying it should go to the person or group “who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations."

The Nobel committee has praised previous winners for their work in advancing human rights, multilateralism, democracy and policies to combat climate change. Some have questioned Trump’s commitment to these issues.

Last month, he didn’t appear on Peace Research Institute Oslo’s shortlist of Peace Prize favorites.

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, recently listed Trump as fifth likeliest to win the prize, with a 4% chance.

“While he clearly deserves credit for his efforts to end the war in Gaza, and the peace plan is the most promising in many years, it is too early to tell whether the peace agreement will lead to lasting peace," Graeger said. “Trump’s retreat from international institutions and his wish to take over Greenland" don’t align with Alfred Nobel’s intent to award the prize to those who promote fellowship among nations, Graeger added.

Should Trump’s efforts in Gaza and Ukraine bear fruit, Graeger said, the committee would likely consider him more seriously for the prize next year, perhaps together with other parties in the Middle East “who have been heavily involved in the negotiations," including Qatar and Egypt.

Asked about the prize during a Thursday meeting at the White House with Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, Trump appeared resigned to the defeat of his Nobel campaign, saying that he wasn’t sure of his chances and that he hadn’t worked to resolve international conflicts to win the award.

“I didn’t do it for that," he said. “I did it because I saved a lot of lives."

Write to Brett Forrest at brett.forrest@wsj.com