‘One Iranian Miscalculation After Another.” That was our headline on June 13, 2025, the first of the 12 days of war that sent Iran’s regime into a tailspin. The initial take-away from Thursday’s nuclear negotiations in Geneva is that the regime isn’t done miscalculating.
Talks ended with “both sides still far apart on key issues,” the Journal reports. “Iran rejected the idea of transferring uranium stockpiles abroad. It also has objected to ending enrichment, dismantling its nuclear facilities and permanent restrictions on its program.” No to everything but lunch, in short.
The Trump Administration had signaled flexibility. The question of Iran’s ballistic missiles could be put off, given the right nuclear concessions. Iran might even retain limited domestic enrichment of uranium—and with it a pathway to a bomb—at an aboveground Tehran reactor or as part of a regional consortium.
This would be a major U.S. concession. Even enrichment to 1.5% purity would constitute half or more of the technical effort needed to achieve weapons-grade uranium.
There is a risk that Mr. Trump could sign something that shores up the Iranian regime without foreclosing its path to a bomb. From there Iran’s regime could wait out the Trump Presidency and resume nuclear work later from a stronger position. It could say the deal was made under duress and is thus void, as some sympathizers have floated.
But the regime won’t even let Mr. Trump make a mistake. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei apparently feels that giving in to U.S. demands would be a greater risk to his rule than incurring an attack. If Mr. Trump orders limited strikes, shying away from the regime’s leaders and killers, the Ayatollah could be right. It may take the sustained campaign prepared by Central Command’s Adm. Brad Cooper to prove him wrong. The Admiral was finally able to brief Mr. Trump on Thursday.
As in June, Iran is testing Mr. Trump’s patience. “They’re not willing to give us what we have to have,” he said Friday. His State of the Union address detailed the regime’s savagery and the threat it poses to America. The U.S. has also been evacuating embassy personnel from the region and shifting tanker aircraft from Qatar to less-exposed Israeli bases.
The arrival of a second aircraft carrier on Friday means the U.S. has rallied at least 16 warships to the region. Together with Israel, the U.S. could bring to bear far more air power than what ruled the skies over Tehran in June. And it is because of what was achieved then that Iran’s regime is now at its weakest: vulnerable militarily, tottering economically, and at war with its own people.
In late December Mr. Trump said he’d support another U.S. or Israeli attack if Iran resumed nuclear work or major ballistic-missile production. In January he warned the Ayatollah not to slaughter protesters: “You better not start shooting because we’ll start shooting too.”
The regime proceeded to massacre its people—at least 32,000, Mr. Trump says—while taunting the President. “If he can, let him manage his own country,” the Ayatollah said. Iran has hardened and carried out some underground construction at nuclear sites and raced ahead with its missile program. Mr. Khamenei is making what could be fatal mistakes.