Trump isn’t certain his economic policies will translate to midterm wins

During an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday in the Oval Office, the president touted his efforts to secure multibillion-dollar investments in the U.S., arguing that the money will help transform the American economy. But he acknowledged that he couldn’t predict if that would translate into political gains for Republicans next fall.

Asked whether Republicans would lose the House in November, Trump said, “I can’t tell you. I don’t know when all of this money is going to kick in." He noted predictions that it could happen in the second quarter.

While the U.S economy has expanded steadily since Trump took office, the benefits haven’t been evenly felt. Job growth has been sluggish, unemployment has ticked up, and rising prices for many everyday goods and services have left many Americans unconvinced that headline growth reflects their day-to-day financial reality.

Economic concerns helped propel Trump to victory in the 2024 election, but voters have grown more negative on the president’s handling of the economy since he returned to the White House. Trump said he would reduce prices while insisting he had already brought them down.

“I think by the time we have to talk about the election, which is in another few months, I think our prices are in good shape," Trump said, blaming inflation on Democrats.

“I’ve created the greatest economy in history. But it may take people a while to figure all these things out," Trump said. “All this money that’s pouring into our country is building things right now—car plants, AI, lots of stuff. I cannot tell you how that’s going to equate to the voter, all I can do is do my job."

Nearly a year into Trump’s second term, he is facing low approval ratings in polls and growing skepticism from voters who don’t feel he has done enough to tackle inflation and the high cost of living. Those anxieties shaped the results of last month’s elections, when Republican candidates were defeated in closely watched races, triggering concerns from party strategists that the GOP could face more widespread losses in next year’s midterms. Democrats plan to make Trump’s handling of the economy a central issue in those contests.

“I think the president’s economic policies have kicked in, and they’ve raised costs for families across the country," said Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington, chairwoman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm. “He promised to lower costs on day one. So that clearly is a broken promise."

Trump pointed out he inherited high inflation from the previous administration, telling the Journal that despite his efforts, history isn’t on the incumbent’s side when it comes to midterm elections.

Since World War II, only two presidents saw their party gain House seats in a midterm: Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. “Even those that had, you know, a successful presidency" faced losses, Trump said. “So that’s the only thing that fights against us. I don’t know why that is."

The White House cited a series of economic actions as evidence of progress, including extending and expanding tax cuts, rolling back federal regulations, boosting domestic energy production and pressing companies to shift manufacturing back to the U.S. Trump has highlighted new trade deals, saying that they will reduce the trade deficit and reliance on foreign supply chains.

Central to Trump’s economic policy is his use of tariffs, which he says has brought a fortune into the U.S.

The president didn’t say whether he would lower tariffs on additional goods. Last month, he moved to reduce tariffs on dozens of agricultural and food products. Prices for everyday staples haven’t fallen during Trump’s second term, and some, such as for coffee and beef, have risen notably, underscoring the pressure many households continue to feel. Healthcare costs for millions of Americans are set to increase next year if lawmakers on Capitol Hill allow enhanced Obamacare subsidies to expire.

Hanging over Trump’s tariff policy is the Supreme Court, which could rule imminently on the legality of roughly half of his tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. The president told the Journal that if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, it “would be a horrible thing for the United States."

When asked if he has alternative ways to use tariffs, the president said there are other laws but they are not as “nimble, not as quick." He added, “I can do other things, but it’s not as fast. It’s not as good for national security."

Trump also argued that tariffs gave him leverage in negotiations with other countries.

“I just used tariffs 10 minutes ago, just before you came, to settle the new inflammation that took place with Thailand and Cambodia," Trump said. “And I told them, ‘If you have the war, not only am I going to break the trade deal we have, but I’m going to put tariffs on your country.’" He added, “Nobody can do that but me." The governments of Thailand and Cambodia said Saturday that fighting continued along their shared border.

Trump has pushed the government to make direct interventions in what it sees as critical segments of the economy, taking stakes in semiconductor and critical minerals companies. Asked if he is considering taking a stake in any defense companies, the president said “yes."

“We should take stakes in companies when people need something. I think we should take stakes in companies. Now, some people would say that doesn’t sound very American. Actually, I think it is very American," Trump said.

At one point the president, sitting at the Resolute Desk with a glittering Christmas tree at its side, asked an aide to show him the latest market data. He took calls from friends and allies multiple times during the interview, including from Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who joined by speakerphone to discuss the administration’s plans for Washington, D.C., golf courses.

Throughout the interview, the president took issue with the stock market’s reaction to positive economic news. “In the old days, when you had good news, the market would go up…now, when you have good news, the market goes down. If you have really good news, the market crashes," Trump said.

He expressed frustration that financial markets had become accustomed to worrying that the Fed would be more hawkish whenever economic activity or hiring is stronger than expected.

“I won’t have anybody on the Federal Reserve that when you have good news, that means you automatically raise interest rates through the roof in order to kill inflation," Trump said.

The president said he would like to see interest rates at 1% or lower a year from now. This past week the Fed lowered its federal-funds target rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

When asked if he would have done anything differently during the first year of his second term, the president paused before answering.

“Overall, no," Trump said. “More money is invested in the United States than any country in history. Stock markets hit all-time highs. I closed the border."

The president touted his victory in last year’s election, but was less confident about Republicans’ prospects in the midterms. “We’ll see what happens. We should win. But, you know, statistically, it’s very tough to win. Yeah, it doesn’t make sense."

“All we’re going to do is, we’re going to try our best to win," he said.

Write to Meridith McGraw at Meridith.McGraw@WSJ.com