Trump uses Gaza peace playbook in Ukraine

A breakthrough would fulfill Trump’s goal of finally stopping the brutal war, which he vowed during his days on the campaign trail to end within 24 hours after returning to the White House.

So far, Trump has succeeded in securing a measure of support from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has said a 28-point draft U.S. plan could be the basis for resolving the conflict. But Trump’s demand that Kyiv accept the proposal within a week has spurred deep anxiety in Europe and Ukraine, whose officials are looking for ways to rework what they see as a one-sided plan.

“Trump’s 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine follows the same script as his 20-point plan for Gaza—a short term, transactional take it or leave it approach to quickly end the fighting but not the war," said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator who is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Both were clearly designed to heavily favor one of the combatants—Russia in case of Ukraine; Israel in Gaza," Miller added.

Like the Gaza plan, the White House blueprint was worked on by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner. But this time, Kremlin confidant Kirill Dmitriev was involved in the consultations, officials have said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “will have to learn to like it," or will have to keep fighting, Trump said. It was a sharp shift in tone from recent statements in which Trump suggested the U.S. could bolster Ukraine by sending long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles and predicted the country might recapture all territory seized by Russian forces since 2022.

A White House spokeswoman also insists that Trump is still open to suggestions from Kyiv and Moscow, building on the president’s success in getting a cease-fire in Gaza. “Just like you saw with respect to Israel and Gaza, we are hearing out both sides of this war to understand what can you commit to do to end the war," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday.

In Gaza, after repeated attempts at securing a cease-fire, Trump warned Hamas in late September that it had “three or four days" to agree to the detailed U.S.-crafted cease-fire deal or they would “pay in hell." Trump also privately pressured a reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the terms.

Trump announced agreement on the deal on Oct. 8. Many elements of the Gaza plans remain incomplete, including disarming Hamas, deploying an international security force, standing up a new governing authority and settling on a reconstruction plan. Both sides still mount isolated attacks, though a fragile cease-fire remains in place.

Trump is using a similar pressure campaign against Kyiv, though some former officials say the stakes are even higher than they were in Gaza as Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s security is at stake.

“What’s on the table is so much more consequential for the parties. We weren’t asking Israel to agree to a Palestinian state," said Richard Haass, the former head of the Council on Foreign Relations and a State Department official under George W. Bush. “It is one thing to jam people on something that is relatively modest; something else to jam them on something that is existential."

Zelensky said on Friday that Trump’s ultimatum confronted Ukraine with “one of the most difficult moments in our history," he said in a video address. “Now Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice. Either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner." He added, “We choose dignity."

Zelensky indicated Friday after speaking with Vice President JD Vance that he hadn’t given up on persuading the White House to amend the terms of the U.S. plans. He and Vance agreed to have their advisers work “to find a workable path to peace," Zelensky said.

Similar to a Board of Peace headed by Trump in the Gaza agreement, the plan to end the Ukraine conflict calls for establishment of a “Peace Council’ to monitor the implementation of the settlement that he would also head.

A parallel accord on security guarantees provides for consultations by the U.S. president with Ukraine, NATO and European governments if Russia carries out a “significant, deliberate and sustained armed attack" after a peace agreement is implemented in Ukraine.

The potential response to such a Russian attack listed in the document includes military action, the sharing of intelligence and logistic support for Ukraine, as well as economic and diplomatic steps. Some former Trump administration officials see that as a noteworthy Russian concession.

“Getting Russia’s agreement to a Western-exclusive security guarantee is a significant achievement for the administration," said Andrew Peek, who served as the top National Security Council official for Russia issues in Trump’s second term before leaving in May.

But other former officials and analysts say Trump’s plan asks Ukraine to trade tangible security arrangements for a mere promise of consultation. Provisions of the 28-point plan would require Ukraine to cap its military at 600,000 while precluding the deployment of a European-led “reassurance force" inside the country to deter future Russian aggression.

“Even if this goes nowhere, the Russians have set in place a narrative," said Rebeccah Heinrichs, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “It looks like Russia is making some kind of concessions and they are not. So it throws the NATO alliance and Ukraine sort of in turmoil and puts us at odds with each other."

Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com