Trump was told attack on Iran wouldn’t guarantee collapse of regime
The president was advised that the U.S. military would need more firepower in Middle East to launch a large-strike attack.
WASHINGTON—President Trump was advised that a large-scale strike against Iran was unlikely to make the government fall and could spark a wider conflict, U.S. officials said, and for now will monitor how Tehran handles protesters before deciding on the scope of a potential attack.
The U.S. would need more military firepower in the Middle East both to launch a large-scale strike, protect American forces in the region and allies like Israel should Iran retaliate, the advisers told Trump, the officials said.
The U.S. officials and Middle Eastern partners told the White House the regime was unlikely to fall after a massive bombing campaign, which could instead spark a broader conflict. Smaller assault packages, meanwhile, could boost morale among protesters but ultimately not change the regime’s crackdown against dissenters, the officials said.
Trump, without making a final decision on which action he would take, asked for military assets to be in place should he order a big attack, the officials said.
“The president and his team have communicated to the Iranian regime that if the killing continues, there will be grave consequences," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday. She said the U.S. learned of Iranian plans to execute 800 people Wednesday, which didn’t happen. She also confirmed Trump had a recent conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but didn’t disclose specifics of their discussion. She didn’t say when the conversation took place.
NBC earlier reported that Trump’s advisers couldn’t guarantee that the Iranian regime would quickly collapse after a U.S. strike.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) told reporters Thursday that the size of an operation against Iran is still in question. “Should it be bigger or smaller? I’m in the camp of bigger. Time will tell," said the staunch Trump ally, adding he hopes “the regime’s days are numbered."
Iranian officials in recent days called the governments of Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman to warn them that if attacked Iran would strike American bases in the region, according to a diplomat familiar with the talks.
The official said the most likely target for possible Iranian retaliation was the large American military base in Qatar, which Tehran has previously targeted with missiles and drones during times of tension with Washington. The U.S. moved some troops off the base this week as a precaution. Some troops were sent to hotels, according to an official familiar with the situation.
Key U.S. allies in the region including Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have urged Trump in recent days not to attack Iran. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, who has been calling and meeting regional leaders including Iranian officials, said he’s working to avoid a military escalation. “We do not want an intervention here," he told a news conference in Istanbul on Thursday.
Still, Trump is expected to order the Pentagon to send an aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, from the South China Sea to the Middle East, according to two U.S. officials and another person familiar with the move. Once it begins, the journey is expected to last about a week, the people said.
The internal discussions show the complications of enforcing Trump’s red line that Iran couldn’t kill protesters en masse. Tehran’s heavy crackdown has killed thousands of people and forced demonstrators off the streets in some cities. Now the president is left with options that fall short of quick victory over the regime and firmly supporting the uprising.
Trump said Tuesday that “help is on its way," urging protesters to keep pressuring the regime. The next day he told reporters that Iran had said it would stop killing and wouldn’t execute protesters, a sign that he might not order strikes as long as the crackdown stops.
On Thursday morning Trump appeared pleased with reports that Iran wasn’t going to execute demonstrators. “Good news," he posted on social media. “Hopefully, it will continue!"
U.S. and Middle Eastern officials said Trump might be stalling for time as military assets move toward the Middle East. One Qatari official said the U.S. might need five to seven days to prepare a full offensive. Last June, the president said he was open to a two-week negotiation with Iran over its nuclear program despite already approving an attack plan.
Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com, Lara Seligman at lara.seligman@wsj.com and Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com
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