Trump’s big tariff task in Asia is to close the deal

On Sunday, Trump won some momentum by winning tariff agreements with a handful of Southeast Asian nations. (AP Photo)
On Sunday, Trump won some momentum by winning tariff agreements with a handful of Southeast Asian nations. (AP Photo)
Summary

The president’s ability to reorder global trade through personal diplomacy will be tested during his tour of Asia this week.

President Trump’s quest to reorder global trade through personal diplomacy will be tested during his tour of Asia this week, as he faces the tantalizing prospect of a pact with China and the chance to bust through obstacles to completing deals with other key trading partners.

On Sunday, Trump won some momentum by winning tariff agreements with a handful of Southeast Asian nations. He also sounded an optimistic note on China ahead of a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping planned for later this week. “I think we are going to come away with a deal," Trump said Monday aboard Air Force One en route to Japan.

Trump is scheduled to be in the region through Thursday. As well as the high-stakes meeting with Xi, Trump is due to meet Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Tuesday to discuss trade and security issues, and will sit down with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on Wednesday.

There is much ground left to cover on trade with other important Asian economies, including South Korea, India, Australia and Taiwan. In some instances, negotiators are struggling to turn bare-bones agreements into actionable deals, while other talks are continuing.

Completing more trade deals would bolster Trump’s centerpiece trade agenda as his controversial levies face legal and political blowback at home and abroad. More delays, despite Trump’s direct involvement, could embolden other countries to dig in longer in the hope of winning more concessions.

“Trump needs to show that he’s winning," said Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at Union Bancaire Privée, a private bank.

(WSJ)
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(WSJ)

Illustrating the challenge is South Korea, which appeared to tap the brakes on a swift finalization of the deal it struck with Washington earlier this year. A senior aide to South Korea’s president on Monday said a deal was unlikely when Trump meets Lee in South Korea later this week.

The two countries agreed in late July that Seoul would invest $350 billion in the U.S. in return for Washington’s agreement to lower its tariffs on South Korean autos and many other goods to 15% from 25%.

But the two sides have struggled to bridge differences over how exactly the investment pledge will work, with Trump at one point insisting the money be paid “upfront," rather than on a project-by-project basis similar to the Japan deal.

To some economists, such wrinkles show the perils of Trump’s preference for announcing bold agreements and leaving the nitty-gritty to later. “These deals do still feel quite performative," said Gaurav Ganguly, head of international economics at Moody’s Analytics.

Still, Trump has signaled a breakthrough with South Korea. “It is pretty close to being finalized," he said at a news conference aboard Air Force One en route to Malaysia. “If they have it ready, I’m ready."

Trump landed in Japan on Monday for an audience with Emperor Naruhito. He is due to discuss trade, defense and other issues with Takaichi at a summit scheduled for Tuesday.

Japan stands as one of the Trump administration’s trade successes: Tokyo has agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S. over the next few years in exchange for a tariff of 15% on most U.S. imports from Japan, including cars. Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. has a considerable role in identifying projects for Japan to finance, and Tokyo agreed that the U.S. can take 90% of the profits from its investments once its original outlay has been recouped.

Trump administration officials, shortly after unleashing proposed tariffs on dozens of countries this spring, said they wanted to give priority to quick deals with five countries: Australia, India, Japan, South Korea and the U.K.

The U.K. reached a rapid agreement in which the U.S. rolled back tariffs to 10% in exchange for British purchases of U.S. airplanes and food. Most goods from Australia, which runs a trade deficit with the U.S., are also subject to a 10% tariff, but a deal appears distant. Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell has said the government believes the U.S. should remove the tariffs altogether, but acknowledged it could take time. “These things don’t get resolved overnight," he told Australian media.

India is also proving tough. Prime Minister Narendra Modi skipped a potential face-to-face meeting with Trump over the weekend in Malaysia, opting to virtually attend the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit.

Trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington had been under way for months when Trump dropped a bomb: The U.S. would impose a 50% tariff on India, partly as punishment for India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil.

Modi is facing increasing domestic pressure to hammer out an agreement, as exports of Indian goods to the U.S. have plunged since the tariffs went into effect over the summer. In September, the first full month under Washington’s 50% tariffs, India’s exports to the U.S. fell to $5.5 billion, down 20% from August and nearly 40% from May, according to Ajay Srivastava, founder of New Delhi consulting firm Global Trade Research Initiative.

Taiwan is continuing to seek a lower tariff rate with the U.S. after getting a temporary reduction from a proposed 32% to 20%, which took effect Aug. 7. Officials have rejected the Trump administration’s proposal to evenly split Taiwanese semiconductor production at home and in the U.S.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te signaled last week that “concrete results" on trade talks could be delivered soon.

Trump has already made some deals during his first trip to Asia since winning his second term.

On Sunday, the U.S. struck detailed agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia that will see the Southeast Asian nations lower tariffs and increase purchases of U.S. goods, including vehicles and farm products. The U.S. also reached looser agreements with Thailand and Vietnam that could provide the foundation for fuller trade deals later on.

Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com, Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com and Shan Li at shan.li@wsj.com

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