Trump’s call with Putin signals long road ahead to Russia-Ukraine deal

The question now facing Trump is whether to apply real pressure on Putin to make concessions or try to wring more compromises out of Kyiv than he already has.

In his call with Trump, Putin agreed to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for a month and to further negotiations toward a permanent cease-fire. But it was far less than Trump aimed for, and certainly less than the monthlong unconditional pause Kyiv accepted earlier.

After the call, Moscow said in a statement that Ukraine would have to agree to curtail its military mobilization and stop rearming, lengthening the list of Russian conditions for a deal. Trump said Putin on the call didn’t ask for a military assistance pause during a Tuesday night interview on Fox News’s “The Ingraham Angle."

“We didn’t talk about aid at all," he said.

Now Trump has the dilemma of either trusting Putin to make peace, or pressuring the Kremlin to make a deal, which could derail his larger goal of rebuilding Washington’s ties with Moscow. Either way, Trump has lashed the fate of his early presidency to Putin, testing whether the American’s desire for a deal could overcome the Russian leader’s goal of subjugating Ukraine.

“Trump genuinely wants to stop the slaughter, he finds it incomprehensible," said Fiona Hill, a former White House adviser on Russia during Trump’s first term. “But what he’s not realizing is that for Putin, this is the price he’s willing to pay, no matter how colossal it may seem from the outside."

Putin’s goal, she said, “is to dominate Ukraine and reassert Russia’s position in Europe writ large."

Trump revealed to the Washington Examiner shortly after the two-hour call that he’d held previously unreported conversations with Putin over the past month, all of which he described as positive.

A full cease-fire was still in play, he said. “I think we’ll end up making a deal. It’s a good start."

But overnight, Russia struck the energy grid of Slovyansk in Ukraine’s east, calling into question just how closely Putin intends to stick to the cease-fire he agreed to with Trump.

Since his inauguration, Trump has mostly chosen to pressure Ukraine. After an Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky turned sour, Trump cut off military aid and intelligence sharing to Kyiv. The tap only reopened after Ukraine agreed to a 30-day cease-fire following a meeting with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia. But Ukraine, a country fighting for its survival, was always the weakest partner in the three-way negotiation.

Any efforts to force Russia to heel would be much harder.

Russia has successfully retooled its economy to a wartime footing despite unprecedented sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, and redirected its trade toward partners like China and India. Today, Moscow feels like it is winning the war and has shown little inclination to negotiate.

While Trump has mused publicly about applying more sanctions, he has preferred niceties with Moscow.

“We will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump posted to social media shortly after the Putin call. “We will, hopefully, for the sake of Humanity, get the job done!"

In his dealings with Trump, Putin has parried any real moves toward a peace deal by praising Trump’s efforts but raising objections to details he has proposed, said Wiliam Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. The phone call continued that effort and promoted Putin’s broader agenda of continuing the war in Ukraine while throwing Trump enough tidbits to keep him from getting angry, he said.

“If Putin’s goal is to drag things out, then he seems to be dragging it out effectively," he said.

Speaking to reporters, Zelensky criticized Putin for not agreeing to an unconditional cease-fire, alleging that Russia was preparing new offensives in Ukraine’s south and north. He also blasted Putin’s demands that Ukraine cease mobilization and the West end arms deliveries.

“That was the ultimatum since the start of the war. He hasn’t changed," Zelensky said. “His whole game is to weaken us as much as possible."

Putin envisions concessions that extend beyond the borders of Ukraine, the Kremlin readout of the call suggests. The readout said that the leaders talked about the Middle East and the Red Sea, and praised signs of a new bilateral relationship in which the U.S. and Russia voted in unison at the U.N.

“Perhaps the most significant outcome was the implicit acceptance of U.S.-Russia cooperation on key international and bilateral issues," wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “This marks an obvious victory for Putin, who seeks to decouple bilateral relations from the Ukraine war."

But Stanovaya said Putin also scored a tactical victory. “Crucially, Putin managed to reject the proposal for a full cease-fire while turning the situation to his advantage without making concessions," she wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “This is very bad news for Ukraine, which is increasingly being treated as a bargaining chip in this game."

Trump hasn’t shied from talking tough about Russia. He brandishes sanctions and other financial weapons, saying he will deploy them if Russia doesn’t agree to a permanent cease-fire. And he reminds captive audiences that he authorized the first shipments of lethal arms to Ukraine following Russia’s initial invasion of Crimea and the country’s east.

Just because Trump didn’t broker a final deal this week doesn’t mean one won’t come together later, some analysts said. They also praised the idea of a slower negotiation to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations.

“A phased cease-fire is likely to be a much more effective approach," said Samuel Charap, chair of RAND’s Russia and Europe program and previously negotiated arms-control deals with Moscow as a U.S. official. “It builds confidence because each step is verifiable and a way of signaling intentions."

But Trump also has his eyes on the bigger prize of rekindling U.S.-Russia relations and pulling the pariah state back into the global community, including rejoining the G-7. Punishing Russia would further isolate Moscow and delay any possible rapprochement with the West.

Trump will have to walk a tightrope to get the Ukraine deal done while keeping the hopes of a broader agreement alive. That could help Putin use the negotiations to ensure a lasting peace never comes.

“This will be a long process," said Kurt Volker, Trump’s Ukraine envoy in the first term. “Putin still seems to think he can achieve his maximalist demands."

Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com, Alan Cullison at alan.cullison@wsj.com and Matthew Luxmoore at matthew.luxmoore@wsj.com