The U.S. and Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iran, coming after years of feckless effort to end Tehran’s nuclear program, could transform the Middle East. The Trump administration’s strategy of careful maneuvering between Russia and China, combined with pressure on Europe to increase its share of the defense burden, has a chance to bear fruit.
Again the president has acted decisively against an exposed partner of the rival great powers. It did so in Venezuela. It’s doing so in Cuba. Attacking Iran’s theocrats, ballistic-missile infrastructure and command-and-control systems leaves the regime weaker than ever. The assault on Iran, including an Israeli strike that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, also solidifies the Trump doctrine, demonstrating the president’s willingness to use tailored, overwhelming force to maximize deterrence and achieve long-term strategic benefits.
The president’s strategy is coherent and prudent: By systematically pressuring exposed adversaries, the influence of strategic rivals is undercut. This explains Washington’s delicate wrangling with the Chinese over trade, tariffs and military transfers to Taiwan. It also explains a generally consistent flow of weapons to Ukraine—paid for with European cash—alongside intelligence support to sustain Kyiv’s fight against Russia even as the U.S. seeks to broker a peace.
Venezuela was a key partner of Russia, China and Iran. So is Cuba. Iran has been a key partner for both Russia and China. Applying overwhelming force against Iran makes the Trump doctrine more real and substantive while building on previous accomplishments, such as last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer, which “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, according to a senior U.S. official.
Using unique U.S. capabilities against weaker targets—whether dropping Massive Ordnance Penetrators from B-2 stealth bombers or using U.S. special forces to extract Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela—isn’t simply effective military policy. It demonstrates to China and Russia that a direct confrontation with the U.S. would be extraordinarily damaging. Even the Chinese military, engaged in history’s largest conventional and nuclear buildup, would suffer severely at the hands of U.S. bombers, submarines and carrier-based aircraft. The same is true of Russia, which as a military and intelligence matter still sees the U.S. as its core enemy. The strike against Iran also reminds the U.S. military of its great strategic importance, breaking radically with the escalation avoidance that has limited U.S. effectiveness since the war on terror.
The Trump doctrine’s military components are one part of its effectiveness. Donald Trump is another: He has proved to be the only U.S. president willing to wage a true war of attrition against Tehran. Both Trump administrations combined crippling sanctions with spectacular displays of force. This strategy along with Israeli tenacity has left the Islamic Republic in a state of headlong decline while hollowing out its regional “axis of resistance.”
Operation Epic Fury creates an opening to complete Iran’s strategic degradation. Following last year’s the 12-day war, Iran’s conventional air defenses remained severely damaged, even with its attempts to buy new short-range weapons from Russia. Iranian ballistic-missile production capacity remained high, 100 a month according to Israel, but its launchers and storage points should be significantly better mapped. The U.S. has had a year to fine-tune its targeting plans and selected countermeasures for the exact radars Iran uses.
Iran’s final negotiating offer was essentially the Iran nuclear deal with only slight modifications. Strictly bound by ideology, including the notion that regime survival equals victory, the Islamic Republic wouldn’t address the fundamental realities of the strategic situation. Mr. Trump recognized this and acted where none of his predecessors did.
The application of overwhelming yet tailored military force can generate a total systemic collapse in Iran. The centerpiece is a large set of refueling tankers for strategic bombers. By maintaining a continuous aerial refueling corridor, the U.S. can launch B-2, B-1, and B-52 missions from Continental bases, allowing them to deliver significant amounts of ordnance against Iranian targets.
Supported by pervasive electronic warfare assets that can effectively blind the remnants of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps command and control, and by carrier-based and regional aviation, the U.S. possesses the ability to dismantle Iran’s counterforce capabilities.
The regime’s aura of inevitability has melted into thin air. Without the successful Israeli bombing campaign of last summer, there would have been no protest wave earlier this year. Iran’s people sensed weakness. Reports of an attempted palace coup against Khamenei seemed credible, even in a regime as closed, controlled, and unified as the Islamic Republic.
Bombs without boots are seldom primed to have strategic impact. In this case they are. The U.S. has all the levers of control—the military posture to eliminate the offensive Iranian military threat, the economic apparatus to provide a crucial lifeline to whoever and whatever follows Khamenei, and the geopolitical leverage over the Middle East—to ensure a real neutralization of the Iran regime.
Mr. Trump seeks to be known as a peacemaker. It’s hard to imagine a greater accomplishment than to achieve peace while stiffening the sinews of deterrence. The administration has seized an opportunity that its previous policy made possible: the elimination of Iran’s theocracy.
Mr. Cropsey is president of the Yorktown Institute. He served as a naval officer and as deputy undersecretary of the Navy and is the author of “Mayday” and “Seablindness.”