Trump’s military buildup in Caribbean limits his options in Iran

In a sign of the Trump administration’s shifting priorities, the Pentagon now has 12 warships assigned to the waters around the Caribbean, versus only six in the Middle East, according to a Navy official. And there is no aircraft-carrier strike group in either the Middle East or Europe since Trump ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean in October, a marked departure from previous periods of tension with Tehran.

Without an aircraft carrier and its associated air wing, including jet fighters, helicopters and electronic-jamming aircraft, the number of military aircraft in the region is also limited to those allowed to deploy to other nations’ bases.

While U.S. naval forces “are ready to operate anywhere in the world and do what is required of them…it’s about risk at the end of the day," Adm. Daryl Caudle, the chief of naval operations, told reporters on Wednesday. “This is risk to mission, and can be risk to force, and certainly risk to objectives, if combined commanders don’t have the forces they need."

That doesn’t mean the military couldn’t carry out the order, if Trump decides to authorize a strike on Iran in response to the regime’s crackdown against the protesters. The Pentagon could order Tomahawk missile strikes from destroyers deployed to the Middle East, as well as send jet fighters stationed in the region and bombers that can reach Iran from their bases in the U.S.

Retired Gen. Joseph Votel, former head of U.S. Central Command, which oversees the U.S. in the Middle East, and U.S. Special Operations Command, noted that when Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, the bombers flew from the U.S.

“We have mature infrastructure (bases, headquarters and agreements) in place that allow us to move military capability and people into place fairly efficiently and effectively," Votel said.

At the White House on Wednesday, Trump said that Iran had stopped killing protesters and would not execute anti-regime protesters, appearing to pull back from any military intervention.

In recent days, the president has suggested he will intervene. On Tuesday, he told Iranian protesters that “help is on its way" and said Americans in Iran should consider evacuating the country.

“Make Iran great again," he said after visiting a Ford factory, calling the situation in the country “very fragile.", according to retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula. Aircraft could also be sent from bases in Europe, including RAF Lakenheath in the U.K., Aviano in Italy and Spangdahlem in Germany, he said.

“It’s not about where the airplanes come from, it’s about what those airplanes can do," said Deptula. Long-range bombers based in the U.S., for example, “can reach anywhere in the world in a matter of hours."

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday on Fox News that airstrikes were one of “many, many options that are on the table for the commander in chief."

Nonmilitary options could include boosting antigovernment sources online, deploying secretive cyber weapons against Iranian military and civilian sites and placing more sanctions on the regime, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

But without a carrier’s accompanying aircraft, the military might struggle to quickly pull together a “strike package," which usually includes additional fighter and electronic-jamming aircraft to protect the striking aircraft, according to the former senior defense official.

“I like to tell people, the Navy can be anywhere in two weeks," Caudle quipped.

Protecting American troops stationed in the region also becomes more precarious without an aircraft carrier and its accompanying destroyers, which are equipped with an Aegis combat system that provides the ability to shoot down incoming missiles.

But officials and experts say the U.S. still has the ability to defend its forces in the area by other means, including using Patriot batteries and air-defense systems from regional partners across the Middle East. The U.S. on Monday opened a new “coordination cell" at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar to boost its ability to integrate missile defense capabilities with regional partners.

“I’m confident that between the countries in the region and what the United States has available to it that not only can those countries defend themselves, they can defend whatever U.S. military unit happens to be in the country," said retired Vice Adm. John Miller, who formerly commanded U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.

Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly degraded in recent months by Israeli and U.S. strikes. Israel’s airstrikes in 2024 devastated Tehran’s strategic air defenses and severely downgraded missile production facilities, WSJ reported. And the U.S. strikes against its nuclear facilities in June also damaged its ability to field a nuclear weapon.

Write to Lara Seligman at lara.seligman@wsj.com and Shelby Holliday at shelby.holliday@wsj.com