Trump’s red-hot war on terror

Since returning to office in January, Mr Trump has revved up the “war on terror". We have examined American anti-terrorist strikes in four countries. In Somalia there have been at least 19 bombing raids over the past three months. That is more than the 11 the Biden administration conducted in the whole of 2024 and the highest rate since the first Trump term (see chart). In Yemen we reckon there have been strikes every day for the past 37 days against the Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia that has been attacking shipping in the Red Sea. In Iraq and Syria a wave of strikes has killed several jihadist leaders, although precise figures are hard to obtain.

Mr Trump promised to end “forever wars" and many in his administration want to shift troops and planes to Asia, winding down American activity in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. So what is driving the surge in air strikes? Part of the answer is the threat posed by jihadist groups, which continue to plot against America. But the operations also reveal the Trump administration’s permissive view of using deadly power on non-state adversaries—from afar. That approach could be applied to others it labels as terrorists, including Latin America’s narco-gangs.

Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defence, is hardline.“Africa is very much the front lines of a fight from Islamists," he said after assuming office. “We’re not going to allow them to maintain a foothold, especially to try to strike at America." As part of its plan, the administration has devolved authority to conduct strikes outside “active" war zones from the president or national security adviser to the combatant commands (the warfighting headquarters responsible for geographical areas, such as Africa).

That may have lowered the threshold for military action. “The previous administration was more risk averse," says a military official. “We have [now] been cleared ‘hot’ to target and kill designated terrorists." Mr Hegseth has gutted the Pentagon’s Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Office. A veteran, he has railed against policies he says were “tying the hands of our warfighters". The administration is stuffed with former special-forces soldiers—such as Mike Waltz, the national security adviser—who harbour similar grievances against what they see as overly restrictive rules of engagement.

The administration believes its approach is justified by new threats. After spending almost two decades fighting jihadists in Iraq and Afghanistan, America has shifted away from boots on the ground. But terrorist groups are reconstituting in havens old and new. Spooks warn that al-Qaeda, which was behind the 9/11 attacks, and IS continue to hatch plans to attack America.

They worry, in particular, about Somalia, where al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate, is thought to have 10,000-15,000 fighters. Its bases have become a staging ground for attacks abroad: a Kenyan jihadist trained and financed by al-Shabab was convicted in November in New York of planning a 9/11-style attack in America.The threat in the Horn of Africa bleeds into the Red Sea. America says al-Shabab is bolstering ties with the Houthis by swapping technological and operational know-how. On April 3rd the head of the US Africa Command told Congress the Houthis could now strike America’s bases in Djibouti. Officials worry that by working with al-Shabab, the Houthis may be able to inflict more pain on shipping or American troops.

“What I’m very worried about now is a resurgence of terrorism," explained Lieutenant General Dan Caine during his Senate confirmation hearing for chairman of the joint chiefs last month. “It doesn’t take many terrorists to create serious problems for this country." In Yemen the Biden administration focused on limited strikes against military sites and infrastructure. American forces are now hitting a wider range of targets. On April 17th they hit the oil terminal at Ras Isa in an attack Houthi officials claim killed 74 people.

It is not clear the new approach is achieving its goals. Counter-terrorism policy in Africa “lurches forward out of momentum, without any real will or consciousness", argues Michael Shurkin, a former CIA analyst and now head of Shurbros Global Strategies, a consultancy. The Houthis have withstood a decade of bombardment from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and others. In the now-infamous group chat discussing battle plans against the militia, cabinet-level officials, including the vice-president, expressed misgivings about bombing Yemen.

Nonetheless, the new approach in Africa and the Middle East could be a taste of what is to come. On his first day in office Mr Trump issued an order designating drug cartels as terrorists. An assessment published in March by America’s 18 intelligence agencies and overseen by Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, elevated the threat of cartels over that of jihadists. A surge of spy-plane and drone activity has been reported around Mexico.

Some in the administration are trumpeting its more muscular approach. Mr Gorka has issued lanyards for his staff emblazoned with the letters WWFY & WWKY. The cryptic abbreviation is derived from Mr Trump’s much-repeated warning to terrorists: “We will find you, and we will kill you."