The U.S. and Iran are locked in a diplomatic stalemate over issues that have bedeviled the two sides for years, as the conflict settles into a gray zone that is neither war nor peace.
The cease-fire is entering its second month and, despite sporadic violence, has now lasted almost as long as the fighting which preceded it. There is little to indicate that either the U.S. or Iran is ready to compromise, but neither wants to start fighting again.
President Trump on Monday warned that the cease-fire with Iran is “on life support” and said he wouldn’t back off his goal of pressing Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Trump told reporters at the White House that Iran believed he would get tired or bored of the conflict, or feel pressure to end it because of rising energy prices.
“But there’s no pressure,” Trump said. “We’re going to have a complete victory.”
Iran, meanwhile, continues to portray itself as the winner of the conflict, its regime intact, its missile and nuclear programs still a threat. A top Iranian official Monday warned the U.S. against escalation. “Our armed forces are ready to deliver a well-deserved response to any aggression,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in a post on X.
But instead of fighting, both sides have doubled down on dueling blockades that are hard to undo without one side blinking. The Trump administration has tightened a U.S. embargo of Iranian ports and vessels, while Iran has maintained its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy-transport waterway.
“We’re in a situation where the only options left are a lot of bad options,” said Allison Minor, a former U.S. official on Middle East policy now at the Atlantic Council think tank.
If the administration wants the standoff ended swiftly, the U.S. could face pressure to water down its key goals. “The Trump administration is going to be forced to choose,” said Minor.
A spokesperson for the White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
A week ago, there was a flurry of optimism around diplomacy, with U.S. officials and others involved in negotiations saying the two sides were drawing closer to a framework deal which could shape a durable peace.
That optimism has faded somewhat. For now, there remain significant gaps in the U.S. and Iranian positions over the future management of the Strait of Hormuz and the kind of constraints Tehran will accept on its future nuclear work and infrastructure, say people close to the talks.
“It’s not entirely clear to me that the United States is going to be able to persuade the Iranians to make significant concessions on its nuclear program in addition to reverting to allowing greater access to the Strait of Hormuz,” said Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.
While fissures have appeared within the Iranian regime over the extent of domestic economic damage the war might inflict, Iran’s latest proposal—which Trump swiftly rejected over the weekend—demonstrates its confidence that Trump’s threats to escalate are empty and Tehran’s patience for a protracted standoff is longer than the White House’s.
The proposal offered few signs of Iranian flexibility on Washington’s demands that Tehran shut down its nuclear program for a lengthy period, analysts said. Iran wants nuclear issues dealt with only once the rest of the terms of the war’s end are settled and implemented. It made clear it expects significant sanctions relief early on, and that it would move only gradually to open up the Strait of Hormuz while it expects swifter action from the U.S. to unwind its blockade on Iran.
Iranian officials are also insisting that Tehran, with some regional input, shape new rules on passage through the strait, which Iran has suggested might include tolls or other mechanisms to earn what it calls war reparations. And Tehran wants an end to the war to be tied to a durable cease-fire in Lebanon where Israeli forces have been clashing with Hezbollah, a link Washington and Israel have dismissed.
Iranian confidence that it can shape a peace deal has increased recently, as Trump administration officials have talked of ending the war and the U.S. has tried but failed to force open the strait militarily, according to Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran research program at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
“Iran is not prepared to return to the prewar status quo and is demanding long-term economic and security guarantees that the war will not resume and that it will be able to derive economic benefit from the situation,” Zimmt said.
Trump is headed to China this week, where he is expected to push Beijing to help find an offramp to the stalled diplomatic talks with Tehran. China, the main buyer of Iranian energy, has leverage over Tehran but there could be costs attached to any help from Beijing to wind down the conflict.
Trump is facing increased pressure from home to find a way out of the stalemate.
Powerful Republican members of Congress have publicly urged Trump to restart Project Freedom—the brief operation aimed at escorting commercial traffic through the strait—or even begin hostilities anew with Iran.
Republicans who are more skeptical of foreign interventions have urged Trump to declare an end to the war swiftly in the face of sagging poll numbers and unease over the economy. Some of Washington’s Persian Gulf allies are also pushing the White House not to resume the conflict.
U.S. officials with extensive Middle East experience say the Trump administration has achieved significant tactical gains in the war—namely severely degrading Iran’s leadership, defense industrial base and navy—but so far none of its strategic aims, including pressuring Tehran to fully give up its nuclear weapons or ballistic missile program or cede support of terror proxy groups in the region.
The White House has said the blockade of Iranian ports and commerce has given the U.S. leverage. They also say that behind Iran’s public bravado is a regime that is on the brink of economic catastrophe and eager to find an offramp of its own.
Senior administration officials have dismissed comparisons of the Iran war to other costly U.S. interventions in Iraq or Afghanistan, describing the current war as a weekslong decisive campaign that can still deliver significant concessions from Iran.
The stalemate could shift any day. The White House could settle for an agreement that falls short of its key goals, or Trump could decide that only military force will get Iran to budge. But Brookings’ Maloney said the most likely scenario for now is a continued limbo.
“I think both Washington and Tehran are still trying to achieve maximalist aims or something close to it through the negotiating process that they weren’t able to achieve in the war itself,” she said.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and Robbie Gramer at robbie.gramer@wsj.com