White House weighs Iran’s nuclear-talks offer as Trump leans toward strikes

Some senior administration aides, led by Vice President JD Vance, are urging Trump to try diplomacy before retaliating against Iran for killing protesters during a two-week uprising over a flailing economy and regime repression, the officials said.

Speaking Sunday to reporters on Air Force One, Trump said that Tehran messaged Washington a day earlier that it was willing to enter negotiations over its yearslong nuclear program, which the U.S. seeks to limit. Trump said “a meeting is being set up" though the U.S. was still looking at “very strong options" he could authorize before discussions.

Trump hasn’t made a final decision on what he will do, according to officials, and will meet with senior aides Tuesday to determine his approach. The options could include ordering military strikes on regime sites or launching cyberattacks, approving new sanctions and boosting antiregime accounts online. Some officials have voiced concerns that U.S. military strikes could fuel the regime’s propaganda that the U.S. and Israel are secretly orchestrating the protests.

The protests, which began in late December and escalated since Jan. 8 with major demonstrators in key cities, are a potentially existential challenge to the regime in Iran that came to power during its own 1979 revolution. Human-rights groups say hundreds of people have been killed in a regime crackdown on demonstrators. Iranian state television on Sunday released footage showing mass casualties inside and outside of a morgue near Tehran.

Trump currently favors attacking Iran, officials said, but could change his mind depending on developments in the country and discussions with aides. Some officials said Trump may strike first and then seek serious talks with Tehran afterward, which the president appeared to signal Sunday. “We may have to act because of what is happening before the meeting," he said.

Vance, while generally resistant to engaging in conflicts, remains open to striking Iran, according to a person familiar with his thinking, believing the country is a threat to the U.S. Vance was initially skeptical of bombing Iran during discussions last June before Trump ordered attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

Officials note the U.S. doesn’t have an aircraft carrier in the Middle East but Trump could still deploy bombers, Air Force jet fighters or naval assets to strike Iran.

Top Iranian officials have threatened to attack American troops in response to a U.S. assault, a threat officials say is just rhetoric for now but does carry some weight. While Iran’s long-range missile capability was degraded by U.S. and Israeli strikes last year, Tehran still has a significant arsenal of short-range missiles that can reach the eastern side of the Arabian Peninsula, one official said.

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country was “ready for negotiations but these negotiations should be fair, with equal rights and based on mutual respect." But if such talks aren’t possible, Iran, he said, “is fully prepared for war." Araghchi also confirmed he contacted U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff over the weekend seeking meetings with the administration.

Some in the U.S. doubt that Iran is genuine about ending its nuclear program, telling Trump that Tehran may be finding a way to buy time and avoid American airstrikes and maintain its legitimacy despite widespread popular unrest.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Trump generally prefers diplomatic resolutions but is always open to military force. “The truth is, with respect to Iran, nobody knows what President Trump is going to do except for President Trump. The world can keep waiting and guessing," she said in a statement.

She later on Monday told reporters that bellicose Iranian public messages are different from Tehran’s private communications. “The president has an interest in exploring those messages," she said.

Trump, after deciding to attack Iran’s nuclear sites last summer, set a two-week deadline for negotiations with Tehran over its program before striking just hours later.

Aides have briefed Trump on the benefits and pitfalls of renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran. Five previous rounds of talks last spring ended after the U.S. joined Israel in bombing three of its main nuclear sites. Top officials, including Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Friday to prepare options for the president, a person familiar with the meetings said.

Trump has clear leverage over the regime, some officials say, as Tehran faces one of the greatest popular uprisings in years while its regional proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened after conflicts with Israel following the attacks on Oct. 7, 2023. The U.S. could gain favorable terms in a negotiation over ending Iran’s nuclear work. But talks also would legitimize the current government just as Trump says he is supporting the protesters, aides note.

The Trump administration sought last spring to get Tehran to agree to give up its enrichment program which is critical to producing a nuclear weapon, in exchange for some sanctions relief. Tehran has for two decades insisted it will continue enriching uranium, a position that officials have been repeating in recent weeks.

Officials also say Trump must follow through on his repeated threats to attack Iran for harming protesters, otherwise he risks reputational damage. But even then there are significant risks, such as Iranian attacks on U.S. forces in the region. It is also unclear that any aerial strikes would immediately stop Tehran from quashing the protests, the officials say, putting Trump in the bind of ordering more attacks or ending operations without cowing the regime.

Trump also has a third option that could entail less risk, some aides and analysts say. He could avoid hard military strikes and hold off talks as long as protests continue, then use the regime’s weakness and need to improve economic conditions to drive for a deal.

“The Iranian regime has a lot of problems," Vance told reporters last Thursday. “The smartest thing for them to have done, it was true two months ago, it is true today, is for them to actually have a real negotiation with the United States about what we need to see when it comes to their nuclear program."

So far no senior government or military figures have defected or spoken out against leadership, even as the crackdown on demonstrators has intensified. While reliable information is hard to get from Iran during a nationwide internet shutdown, activists say hospitals are filling up with thousands of injured people.

Despite popular and U.S. pressure, there are few signs Iran’s rulers are on the verge of losing their power. “The regime will hunker down, weaker and more isolated internationally but also more risk-tolerant in dealing with the U.S. and more menacing at home," said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington. “Even if there is some post-crackdown splintering, the nucleus of the regime now has even more incentive to stick together."

Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com and Natalie Andrews at natalie.andrews@wsj.com