Why Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ is missing in action

For decades, Iran’s leaders built up a network of allied militias in the Middle East that shared a hatred of Israel and America to gain regional influence and protect the regime. But as the theocracy is now fighting for its own survival, its allies are missing in action.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once seen as the most powerful in Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, hasn’t fired a single missile since Israel attacked Iran. Its military capabilities and leadership have been decimated by Israeli forces over the past year. Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, is a shadow of itself after 20 months of war with Israel that has seen its leaders killed and Gaza destroyed.

In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias haven’t targeted U.S. military bases, as they have in the past. And Yemen’s Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday, but have remained silent since.

The bruising wars have left Iran’s allies wary of taking on Israel, which has demonstrated vastly superior military and intelligence capabilities. Some are now focused on their own interests and have a lot to lose from an expanding war, such as Iraq’s militia members who are now making fortunes in the oil sector. Others, like Hezbollah, are trying to rebuild and nursing grievances over the lack of support from Tehran during the group’s war with Israel, according to Arab diplomats who speak to the group regularly.

“For all of these networks right now, it’s about survival," said Renad Mansour, a senior fellow and Iraq Initiative project director at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “They all understand the wrath of these types of military campaigns."

Nevertheless, those calculations are likely to change for some of Iran’s allied militias if the U.S. joins Israel in bombing Iran, say diplomats and analysts. The prospect of the U.S. fueling another Middle East war is all but certain to stir anti-American anger, prompt a violent response and solidarity with Iran across the Muslim world.

The case for self-preservation follows years of steady decline in Iran’s power in the Middle East, culminating in Israel’s massive assault last Friday. In January 2020, a U.S. drone strike killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, widely seen as Iran’s second most powerful man after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Soleimani was in charge of Iran’s support to its regional allies.

The eruption of conflict following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas that left around 1,200 dead and 250 taken hostage touched off a string of blows to Iran, as Israel systematically targeted Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran did little to help either militia confront Israel on the battlefield.

Mourners in Beirut prayed last September at the grave of a Hezbollah commander killed by Israel.

In late 2023 and last year, Israeli airstrikes killed top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in the Syrian capital of Damascus, hobbling Iran’s command and control in Syria. Iran didn’t order its allied militias in Iraq to help fight off a rebel offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December, eventually pulling its forces out and ending a decade of Iranian influence.

“Many of them question if this is the time for resistance or whether it’s the time to keep your head down and try to stay out of this conflict," said Mansour, referring to Iran’s allied militias.

The Israeli attacks have weakened and humiliated Tehran, striking nuclear facilities, weapons systems, oil and energy infrastructure, as well as government and military leaders. But what has particularly shaken Iran’s allies is that the attacks have shown how thoroughly Israel’s intelligence has infiltrated Iran. Israel was able to attack Iran with drones from inside the country and has had targeting information on many of Tehran’s top military and intelligence figures.

“I imagine it’s been very shocking to the Houthis to see quite how Iran is deeply penetrated by intelligence," said Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East expert and the head of the University of Cambridge’s Girton College. “They’ll probably be thinking that we should lie fairly low at the moment. We start maneuvering around, we give ourselves away, we reveal our locations."

In Iraq, Shiite militia leaders have become careful with their use of technology. They use burner phones and frequently change their numbers. They are seldom online.

“They are all terrified of Israel," said Mansour.

Hezbollah has publicly condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran. A person familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking said Iran is capable of handling the confrontation without assistance from allies, adding that the group is in a wait-and-see mode.

The group also has little appetite for getting dragged into another war, according to Arab diplomats who speak regularly with the group. For now, Hezbollah wants to focus on rebuilding their capabilities and finances, the diplomats said.

There are also signs that there are lingering tensions over the lack of support the group got when it was fighting with Israel. A day before Israel launched its attack, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem represented himself as a Lebanese political figure in a televised interview. There were no Iranian flags or photos of Khamenei displayed in his office, suggesting a subtle shift away from Iran and a focus on its Lebanese roots.

After Israel detonated the pagers of Hezbollah members and killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, some members felt Iran had done little to protect the group, the diplomats said. Some Hezbollah figures blamed the intelligence failures in part on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

In Iraq, home to dozens of Iranian-backed Shiite militias, only one group has issued a statement. Kataeb Hezbollah said on Sunday that Iran doesn’t need its military assistance to deter Israel, but if the U.S. joins the war, it will target U.S. assets across the region. According to Arab diplomats, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani is pressuring militia leaders to stay out of the conflict and avoid sensational provocative rhetoric.

The focus for Iraq’s militias has also shifted. Many militia leaders have entered the government, where they have access to government contracts and Iraq’s lucrative oil economy. While many remain loyal to Iran, they are making decisions based on self-interest.

“They’ve been sort of benefiting from Iraq’s stability, in a way, and the high oil prices to develop economic empires," said Mansour.

As for the Houthis, despite their public rhetoric and slogan that calls for death to America and Israel, the group has never been entirely beholden to Iran. The Houthis’ arsenal of missiles and drones have also been significantly degraded by weeks of U.S. airstrikes in March and April.

“It’s a Houthi-first policy," said Kendall. “They’re not going to put their own necks on the line for the supreme leader. They’re going to figure out what’s actually best for them."

Other analysts say the Houthis are waiting for the right time to join the war, and that they might be holding back while Tehran gives priority to a diplomatic resolution. “The Houthis remain in close coordination with Iran, and their limited involvement in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict appears to be calculated," said Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen for the International Crisis Group.

Write to Sudarsan Raghavan at sudarsan.raghavan@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com