When Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire only hours before President Trump had vowed to unleash punishing new attacks, it was in many ways a moment of triumph for the battered regime.

Tehran emerged from 38 days of war against the U.S. and Israel having won not only its primary goal—its own survival—but also two potential strategic gains: control of the Strait of Hormuz and a newly established deterrence against large-scale attacks by its longtime adversaries.

Despite huge military losses, Iran’s stranglehold on the vital waterway for 20% of the world’s oil exports won’t be broken anytime soon.

Tehran’s asymmetric tactics were carefully planned to offset U.S. and Israeli military advantages, raising the pressure on Trump to halt the conflict. The cease-fire went into effect without the U.S. and Israel attaining far-reaching goals such as toppling the regime, eliminating Iran’s nuclear program and ending its ability to threaten its neighbors.

“What Iran did, systematically and deliberately, was hurt the U.S. economy” by closing down Hormuz and spiking the price of oil globally, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Middle East Institute. In response to Trump’s effort to bring down the regime, “they made sure the war was felt in the U.S.”

For that reason, he added, “I don’t think Trump’s going to try that again.”

The White House said it had halted offensive operations, but Iran’s attacks on neighboring Arab states in the Persian Gulf hadn’t stopped Wednesday, an indication that the cease-fire still faces obstacles and that it could collapse before taking hold.

Iranian officials were quick to declare victory, insisting in a statement by the country’s national-security council that their longtime adversaries had suffered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.” Pro-government demonstrators took to the streets after the cease-fire announcement, waving flags and chanting slogans.

Even more telling was Tehran’s insistence that it would continue to assert control over Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised ships “safe passage” through the strait for two weeks during talks with the U.S. on ending the war. But he said vessels could only move “in coordination” with Iranian armed forces and “with due consideration of technical limitations.”

If attacks on Iran resumed, it would restart its military operations, Araghchi warned. On Wednesday, some ships at anchor received radio messages from Iranian forces saying they still needed Iran’s permission to transit the narrow strait.

The implication: Iran is intent on using its newfound control over the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf as leverage over Trump as the Islamic Republic seeks to rebuild its power after the biggest threat to its survival in decades.

Following the killing of Iran’s longtime theocratic leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, Iran’s new leadership has taken an even more anti-Western stance, with a greater decision-making role for the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said analysts who study Iran.

The war has proved a disaster for Tehran in numerous respects. Its attacks on Arab countries and restrictions on their oil imports have shattered relations in the region, driving the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries that had cultivated ties to Iran closer to the U.S. and even to Israel.

More than five weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes damaged Iran’s infrastructure, including its largest petrochemical processing facility. Many of its navy ships were sunk and its large missile and drone arsenal was degraded though not fully destroyed.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday the U.S. had achieved a “decisive military victory.”

But so far, it is Trump who has appeared more conciliatory. The cease-fire would give U.S. and Iranian negotiators time to hammer out a deal, he said. A 10-point Iranian proposal calling for sweeping U.S. concessions, including a promise not to attack Iran again, lifting of all sanctions on Tehran and removal of U.S. troops from the region was “a workable basis on which to negotiate,” Trump said in a social-media post.

One of 10 demands in the peace plan is the continuation of Iran’s control over the strait.

“The mere fact that Iran’s framework will anchor the negotiations amounts to a significant diplomatic victory for Tehran,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and an advocate of friendlier relations with Iran, wrote by email. “The United States is no longer in a position to dictate terms.”

On Wednesday, Trump called the cease-fire a win and insisted the U.S. will retrieve Iran’s enriched uranium buried under rubble. Iran wouldn’t enrich uranium in the future, he said, something Tehran says it will do. He said that sanctions relief sought by Tehran was on the table but also that many of the administration’s demands in a separate 15-point U.S. plan “have already been agreed to” by Tehran.

He also insisted that the U.S. and Iran might work jointly to oversee ship traffic through the strait. The White House played down Trump’s comment that the 10-point Iranian plan would form the basis for the talks, saying he was speaking about a blueprint with different elements than those Iran has outlined publicly.

Trump could still resume airstrikes if the talks collapse. Or he could halt the war now but resume attacks in the future, or give Israel a green light to do so. For now, though, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its control over Hormuz or make other major concessions in the coming talks, analysts said.

“Any deal Trump gets now is worse than the one that was on the table when he decided to blow things up,” said Alan Eyre, a former senior State Department expert on Iran and a member of the Obama administration negotiating team with Tehran. “The only question to my mind is what sort of deal Iran can work out in terms of monetizing and institutionalizing its control of the strait.”

Iran’s leaders have also emerged from the war seemingly even more determined to suppress internal opposition to the regime. Accused of killing thousands of protesters earlier to put down antigovernment demonstrations, the regime is taking an even harder line against opponents, accusing them of being potential spies and calling for other Iranians to report them.

Many ordinary Iranians welcomed the war when it started, encouraged by Trump’s vow that help ousting the regime was coming. But the regime’s survival, despite more than 20,000 strikes by the U.S. and Israel, have left many Iranians convinced that changing the government is even more unlikely now.

Yet the roots of the country’s deep-seated domestic unrest—an economy crippled by sanctions and inflation and an unpopular theocratic government—remain, a vulnerability that even facing down the combined might of the U.S. and Israel is unlikely to eliminate.

When Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire only hours before President Trump had vowed to unleash punishing new attacks, it was in many ways a moment of triumph for the battered regime.

Tehran emerged from 38 days of war against the U.S. and Israel having won not only its primary goal—its own survival—but also two potential strategic gains: control of the Strait of Hormuz and a newly established deterrence against large-scale attacks by its longtime adversaries.

Despite huge military losses, Iran’s stranglehold on the vital waterway for 20% of the world’s oil exports won’t be broken anytime soon.

Tehran’s asymmetric tactics were carefully planned to offset U.S. and Israeli military advantages, raising the pressure on Trump to halt the conflict. The cease-fire went into effect without the U.S. and Israel attaining far-reaching goals such as toppling the regime, eliminating Iran’s nuclear program and ending its ability to threaten its neighbors.

“What Iran did, systematically and deliberately, was hurt the U.S. economy” by closing down Hormuz and spiking the price of oil globally, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Middle East Institute. In response to Trump’s effort to bring down the regime, “they made sure the war was felt in the U.S.”

For that reason, he added, “I don’t think Trump’s going to try that again.”

The White House said it had halted offensive operations, but Iran’s attacks on neighboring Arab states in the Persian Gulf hadn’t stopped Wednesday, an indication that the cease-fire still faces obstacles and that it could collapse before taking hold.

Iranian officials were quick to declare victory, insisting in a statement by the country’s national-security council that their longtime adversaries had suffered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.” Pro-government demonstrators took to the streets after the cease-fire announcement, waving flags and chanting slogans.

Even more telling was Tehran’s insistence that it would continue to assert control over Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised ships “safe passage” through the strait for two weeks during talks with the U.S. on ending the war. But he said vessels could only move “in coordination” with Iranian armed forces and “with due consideration of technical limitations.”

If attacks on Iran resumed, it would restart its military operations, Araghchi warned. On Wednesday, some ships at anchor received radio messages from Iranian forces saying they still needed Iran’s permission to transit the narrow strait.

The implication: Iran is intent on using its newfound control over the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf as leverage over Trump as the Islamic Republic seeks to rebuild its power after the biggest threat to its survival in decades.

Following the killing of Iran’s longtime theocratic leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, Iran’s new leadership has taken an even more anti-Western stance, with a greater decision-making role for the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said analysts who study Iran.

The war has proved a disaster for Tehran in numerous respects. Its attacks on Arab countries and restrictions on their oil imports have shattered relations in the region, driving the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries that had cultivated ties to Iran closer to the U.S. and even to Israel.

More than five weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes damaged Iran’s infrastructure, including its largest petrochemical processing facility. Many of its navy ships were sunk and its large missile and drone arsenal was degraded though not fully destroyed.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday the U.S. had achieved a “decisive military victory.”

But so far, it is Trump who has appeared more conciliatory. The cease-fire would give U.S. and Iranian negotiators time to hammer out a deal, he said. A 10-point Iranian proposal calling for sweeping U.S. concessions, including a promise not to attack Iran again, lifting of all sanctions on Tehran and removal of U.S. troops from the region was “a workable basis on which to negotiate,” Trump said in a social-media post.

One of 10 demands in the peace plan is the continuation of Iran’s control over the strait.

“The mere fact that Iran’s framework will anchor the negotiations amounts to a significant diplomatic victory for Tehran,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and an advocate of friendlier relations with Iran, wrote by email. “The United States is no longer in a position to dictate terms.”

On Wednesday, Trump called the cease-fire a win and insisted the U.S. will retrieve Iran’s enriched uranium buried under rubble. Iran wouldn’t enrich uranium in the future, he said, something Tehran says it will do. He said that sanctions relief sought by Tehran was on the table but also that many of the administration’s demands in a separate 15-point U.S. plan “have already been agreed to” by Tehran.

He also insisted that the U.S. and Iran might work jointly to oversee ship traffic through the strait. The White House played down Trump’s comment that the 10-point Iranian plan would form the basis for the talks, saying he was speaking about a blueprint with different elements than those Iran has outlined publicly.

Trump could still resume airstrikes if the talks collapse. Or he could halt the war now but resume attacks in the future, or give Israel a green light to do so. For now, though, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its control over Hormuz or make other major concessions in the coming talks, analysts said.

“Any deal Trump gets now is worse than the one that was on the table when he decided to blow things up,” said Alan Eyre, a former senior State Department expert on Iran and a member of the Obama administration negotiating team with Tehran. “The only question to my mind is what sort of deal Iran can work out in terms of monetizing and institutionalizing its control of the strait.”

Iran’s leaders have also emerged from the war seemingly even more determined to suppress internal opposition to the regime. Accused of killing thousands of protesters earlier to put down antigovernment demonstrations, the regime is taking an even harder line against opponents, accusing them of being potential spies and calling for other Iranians to report them.

Many ordinary Iranians welcomed the war when it started, encouraged by Trump’s vow that help ousting the regime was coming. But the regime’s survival, despite more than 20,000 strikes by the U.S. and Israel, have left many Iranians convinced that changing the government is even more unlikely now.

Yet the roots of the country’s deep-seated domestic unrest—an economy crippled by sanctions and inflation and an unpopular theocratic government—remain, a vulnerability that even facing down the combined might of the U.S. and Israel is unlikely to eliminate.