SUBIC BAY, Philippines—When the USS Independence pulled away from this U.S. military base in March 1992, sailors stood in formation on the aircraft carrier’s runway to spell out two words: “Farewell Subic.”
Months later, the sprawling naval base was formally handed over to the Philippines, which had decided to end nearly a century of American military presence.
Now, the U.S. military is back—not only in Subic Bay but across the Philippines.
The nation of 117 million people, a U.S. treaty ally and former colony, sits on some of the most strategic real estate in the world. Its 7,641 islands—from the Batanes archipelago in the north, about 100 miles from Taiwan, to Palawan in the south—form a geographic barrier that boxes in China’s naval forces and curbs its expansion into the Pacific.
The value of that geography isn’t lost on U.S. war planners, who are deploying some of their most advanced missile systems to the Philippines, conducting increasingly complex exercises and upgrading local bases to accommodate U.S. equipment and supplies.
The moves are the centerpiece of Washington’s strategy to scatter U.S. forces across the Pacific and convince China that it would be too costly to use military force against Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims.
“It’s a partnership that is only growing,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said ahead of a meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the eponymous longtime dictator who anchored U.S. policy here for much of the Cold War.
Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, called the Philippines a “model ally” on his own trip to Manila this month—unusual praise given the Trump administration’s ambivalence toward other alliances, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
The closer U.S. ties have put the Philippines in Beijing’s crosshairs. Chinese officials have denounced the U.S.-Philippine military drills as a provocation and said they destabilize the region. State-run media recently published a video depicting the Philippines as a monkey acting at the direction of the U.S. and Japan.
In the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by both China and the Philippines, Chinese navy, coast guard and maritime militia vessels regularly clash with Philippine vessels. In one recent incident, a Philippine sailor suffered a head injury after Chinese coast guard personnel hit the sailor with a baton, according to the Philippine military. Chinese vessels have also used water cannon and other tactics to ward off Philippine boats from disputed features.
Philippine officials reject the idea that Manila’s cooperation with Washington increases the risk of a conflict. The Philippines “will only be a target if there’s a bad actor with bad intentions against the Philippines,” Gilberto Teodoro Jr., the country’s defense secretary, said in an interview.
Expanding footprint
During the Cold War, the deep and sheltered waters of the U.S. naval base at Subic Bay hosted aircraft carriers and submarines. To build an airport, the Navy flattened a mountain. Along with the Clark Air Base inland, Subic Bay sustained anticommunist wars in Korea and Vietnam and, thanks to the support of longtime dictator Ferdinand Marcos, projected U.S. power through decades of containment.
Today, gridlined streets retain the names of American presidents and commanders. In Olongapo, the city adjacent to the core of the former base, ex-U.S. servicemen who have settled in the area hang out at the bar and clubhouse of the American Legion veterans organization. The Philippine government has designated the roughly 260-square-mile area an economic development zone, pitching the bay’s tropical beaches and scuba diving on World War II shipwrecks to tourists.
But amid the hotels, bars and restaurants, the American military is creeping back in—albeit less out in the open.
In 2022, U.S. private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, co-founded by now-Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg, beat out Chinese companies to take control of a commercial shipyard in Subic Bay. One of the tenants is a Korean shipbuilder, which analysts say could help repair U.S. vessels.
The U.S. Coast Guard this year deployed more nimble patrol craft in Subic Bay for the first time. When reporters from The Wall Street Journal visited there earlier this year, they saw vehicles with U.S. Marine Corps markings being transported from the base’s former airport on flatbed trucks.
The Marines already maintain a warehouse for humanitarian and disaster relief equipment, according to the local government, and the Navy last year sought to lease space for the storage and maintenance of vehicles. A U.S. government contracting document from April said the Army was looking to hire security to “support controlled storage and weapon systems at two separate sites” within Subic Bay.
U.S. Pacific Command, which oversees U.S. forces from India to Hawaii, declined to provide more detail on the status of U.S. infrastructure on the former base. “Subic Bay is an important commercial hub that enables logistics coordination between the United States and” the Philippine military, it said.
Beyond Subic Bay, the U.S. has formal access to nine Philippine bases and airports where it can rotate forces, build infrastructure and store equipment. Washington has committed more than $300 million to upgrading these bases with new hangars, better runways and more storage.
And last year, the Pentagon set up Task Force-Philippines, made up of 60 servicemembers deployed in the country, to increase coordination with Manila.
In Subic Bay, there are mixed feelings about the U.S. military’s expanding presence, despite overall strong support for the alliance. More personnel could give the area an economic boost, but some locals are worried it risks making the bay a target.
“Economically speaking, we have been waiting for it,” said Rolen Paulino Jr., the mayor of Olongapo, the town near the former base. Still, “the Philippines being involved in war and of course Olongapo being in the middle of it…it’s a little unsettling.”
Dress rehearsal
In June, the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System, or Nmesis—a new antiship missile launcher mounted on a remote-controlled truck—rolled onto the runway on the Philippines’ island of Itbayat, one of the country’s most northern islands. The missiles it fires have a range of about 115 miles, which from Itbayat would allow U.S. Marines to take out Chinese warships trying to cross south of Taiwan.
Weeks earlier, the Army test fired a Tomahawk missile, with a range of up to about 1,200 miles, from the island of Leyte, in another demonstration of might aimed at Beijing. At a naval base on the main island of Luzon, the Marines practiced downing drones using their latest truck-mounted counterdrone system.
The drills are a test run for maneuvers that would be crucial for a potential U.S. response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In such a scenario, small squads of troops with drones or mobile antiship missile launchers would be deployed to Philippine islands to harass Chinese ships. U.S. aircraft could fly missions from Philippine air bases, dispersing the planes and making it harder for China to target them with missile strikes.
“The Philippines’ geography is irreplaceable,” said Brian Harding, a former Pentagon official who was part of the early discussions regarding access to Philippine bases during the Obama administration.
“We’re not going to have U.S. bases in the Philippines,” he said. “But the idea is to have the United States present continually and deeply familiar with the facilities.”
Its more mobile footprint in the Philippines complements the U.S. presence in Japan, where America has permanent bases that host tens of thousands of troops.
Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said that to be of use in a conflict, Philippine airfields need better power generation, expanded ramp space and upgraded structures to protect against missile attacks.
“We’ve been heading in the right direction,” he said, “but that effort probably needs to be put on steroids.”
There are risks to the current strategy—for both the U.S. and the Philippines.
The U.S. depends on Philippine authorities to authorize specific activities on or use of the bases, such as storing specific weapons systems, and President Marcos has said that its territory cannot be used for offensive action. Elections in 2028 could usher in an unfriendly administration—perhaps one led by Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who crimped U.S. military exercises in the country and favored closer ties with Beijing.
Recent U.S. moves, including the war in Iran and Trump’s efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing, have injected uncertainty into Washington’s pledges to defend Asian allies.
Teodoro, the defense secretary, in his interview said that he’s not worried about America’s commitment, and that cooperation between the two countries has grown. “The Philippines has nothing to complain about,” he said.
In the waters off Subic Bay, local fishermen like Ryan Jacinto, who are frequently harassed by Chinese vessels out at sea, say they feel safer when U.S. ships are around.
“It puts China in a difficult position. If the U.S. has a base here, they hesitate,” he said. “The Chinese are not that aggressive when they are facing the U.S.”