Xi is chasing a huge concession from Trump: Opposing Taiwan independence

As President Trump has shown interest in striking an economic accord with China in the coming year, the people say, the Chinese leader is planning to press his American counterpart to formally state the U.S. “opposes" Taiwan’s independence.

Since coming to power in late 2012, Xi has made bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control a key tenet of his “China Dream" of national revival. Now, well into an unprecedented third term, he has repeatedly emphasized that “reunification" is inevitable and can’t be stopped by outside forces—a reference to Washington’s political and military support to Taipei.

Xi is no longer satisfied with the U.S. position adopted by the administration of President Joe Biden that Washington “does not support" Taiwanese independence, the people say. That statement reassured Beijing but didn’t deviate from the U.S. strategically ambiguous “One China" policy, which acknowledges Beijing’s claim over Taiwan without endorsing it.

For Xi, the difference between not supporting Taiwan’s independence and explicitly opposing it is more than semantics. It would signal a shift in U.S. policy from a neutral position to one that actively aligns with Beijing against Taiwanese sovereignty—a change that could further cement Xi’s hold on power at home.

The Trump administration hasn’t inherited the Biden-era language of not supporting Taiwanese independence. Instead, “we have long stated that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side," a State Department spokesperson said. “China presents the single greatest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."

Xi believes that he can entice a switch on Taiwan from Trump, who Beijing thinks is eager to secure an economic bargain, the people say. In talks with their American counterparts, Chinese policy advisers outside the government have already stressed the need for the U.S. to officially announce its opposition to Taiwan’s independence.

“Driving a wedge between Washington and Taipei is the holy grail of the Taiwan problem for Beijing," said Evan Medeiros, a former senior national-security official of the Obama administration and now a professor at Georgetown University. “It would undermine Taiwan’s confidence and increase Beijing’s leverage over Taipei."

“Xi likely sees the coming period of interactions with Trump as the best opportunity to try to pull Washington and Taipei apart," Medeiros added.

In a statement, Liu Pengyu, spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in the U.S., said “China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges or military ties" between the U.S. and Taiwan.

A recent deal brokered by Trump and Xi for the sale of social-media app TikTok to U.S. investors has paved the way for a series of high-level talks. The two leaders plan to meet at the coming Asia-Pacific leaders’ summit in South Korea, with potential follow-up visits to Beijing by Trump in early 2026 and to the U.S. by Xi that December. However, this engagement remains tentative, people close to the White House say, as Trump’s trip to China hinges on Beijing’s cooperation on trade and efforts to curb the flow of substances that make fentanyl.

At the same time, the U.S.’s relationship with Taiwan appears to have grown more uncertain.

Trump, unlike Biden, has largely avoided explicitly stating whether the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan, saying commenting publicly would weaken his negotiating position. In an August interview with Fox News, Trump said Xi had promised him that China wouldn’t invade Taiwan while he is the president. Trump didn’t specify when that promise was made but noted that Xi added, “But I am very patient, and China is very patient."

The Trump administration recently delayed some military aid and denied Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a U.S. transit stop—a move that led to Lai cancelling his trip to Latin America. Those actions have raised questions in both Washington and Taipei about whether it is giving priority to a trade deal with China over support for Taiwan.

The people close to the White House say the administration is focused on deterring China from taking military actions against Taiwan and encouraging Taipei to increase its spending on key capabilities like drones and munitions to bolster its self-defense. The recent decision to deny the transit stop, they say, was intended to avoid dragging the U.S. into domestic Taiwanese politics by boosting Lai’s party during a local legislative recall election.

Rejecting Beijing’s Taiwan independence narrative is a key to deterrence, the people say, as doing so would deny China a potential pretext for conflict that mirrors Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A senior administration official said, “the U.S.’s one-China policy, which provides for executive branch interactions with both sides of the Taiwan Strait, remains the same as the first Trump administration." Under Trump’s first presidency, the U.S. increased engagement with Taiwan and boosted arms sales.

In a January call with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Secretary of State Marco Rubio privately reiterated the reassurance of nonsupport for Taiwanese independence, according to people familiar with the matter. Beijing then publicized the remark in an official account of the call without U.S. permission, the people said, which irked Rubio.

The U.S. readout of the January call instead focused on the concerns Rubio expressed to Wang over Beijing’s “coercive actions" against Taiwan. An updated State Department fact sheet on the U.S.-Taiwan relations in February even removed the Biden-era phrase stating the U.S. doesn’t support Taiwan independence.

Ivan Kanapathy, a senior national-security official who helps formulate the administration’s policy toward China, is an advocate for improving the U.S.’s ability to deter China from trying to take Taiwan by force as Beijing continues to build its military might.

In an article published last year by the centrist think tank, the Brookings Institution, Kanapathy argued that U.S. officials should avoid publicly stating nonsupport for Taiwanese independence, as that phrase creates doubt in Taiwan and confuses allies. He proposed a more neutral message: simply opposing any unilateral change to the status quo.

Still, Xi is expected to use every chance he gets with Trump to press the American leader to adopt a firm stance against Taiwanese independence.

“No U.S. policy change on Taiwan will happen overnight," said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “China will push for its position persistently and repeatedly so as to inch forward, and in the process undermine Taiwan’s confidence in U.S. commitment."

Write to Lingling Wei at Lingling.Wei@wsj.com