Prices of Indian apples are expected to remain high in the domestic market until September, owing to a drop in production volume in Himachal Pradesh. Apple production in the state is projected to decline by nearly a third to about 493,465 tonnes or 24.6 million boxes in 2026 from 699,876 tonnes in 2025, according to four people aware of the trend and Himachal Pradesh horticulture department data reviewed by Mint.
Himachal Pradesh plays a crucial role in bridging India’s apple supply, meeting about 37% of national demand before Jammu & Kashmir’s peak harvest begins in September. Overall, India produces 2.5-2.7 million tonnes of apples annually, with Jammu & Kashmir accounting for 60% of the market.
Apples also form the backbone of Himachal Pradesh's horticulture sector, representing 80% of its total output. However, the state is facing a sharp drop in production, a decline that scientists and orchardists attribute to climate change, which has caused warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and fewer chilling hours.
According to traders, wholesale apple prices are already ₹2,000 to ₹3,500 per 20-kg box, which is about ₹500-800 higher than last year. The surge comes at a time when household budgets are already under pressure from elevated food prices. India’s food inflation in June was 5.32%, pushing overall retail inflation to an 18-month high of 4.38%, above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% midpoint target for the first time since January 2025.
Weather-ravaged season
According to farmers and agricultural scientists, apple production is expected to remain under pressure this season as a combination of adverse weather events hits orchards across key growing regions. The apple season begins in July and ends in mid-November.
"Excessive rainfall last year triggered premature leaf fall, weakening trees ahead of the current season. Climate change further compounded the problem by reducing winter snowfall and chilling hours, both essential for healthy flowering and fruit setting. In addition, frost during the flowering stage damaged blossoms in several orchards, affecting fruit development," said Usha Sharma, senior scientist and head of Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK), Shimla. “Our pre-estimates suggest that the production will decline, but the exact data will only come once the season ends,” Sharma added.
"A projected 30% drop in production, as estimated by the horticulture department, is expected to keep apple prices firm this year," added Harish Chauhan, an apple grower and convener of the Kisan Sanyukt Manch.
Import boost
The sharp decline in domestic apple production is expected to boost imports this season as traders move to bridge the supply gap. Importers are likely to increase shipments from countries such as the US, Iran, New Zealand, Chile and South Africa to meet demand during the festive season and offset lower arrivals from key producing states.
India’s apple imports decreased 29.5% to $316.84 million in FY26 from $449.74 million in FY25, commerce ministry data showed. Iran, New Zealand, the US, South Africa, and Chile remained India’s top five sources for apple imports over the last two fiscal years. Varieties like American Washington apples and New Zealand apples continue to be among the most popular choices in the domestic market.
"Imports are largely independent of domestic production, as the volume of imports is driven by prices. However, we expect imports to increase this year as market conditions remain firm.," said Akshay Fatnani, director, Fruitporium International, an importer of apples. He said the most popular imported variety, Washington apple, is trading around ₹300 a kg in the wholesale market.