NEW DELHI: The cup that cheers is turning bitter for northeast India as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and extreme weather threaten the yields and quality of the region's iconic tea industry.
Climate change is turning out to be a major risk for northeast India’s tea industry, according to three people aware of the crisis brewing in the world’s second-largest tea grower.
The threats have worsened this year, with waterlogging damaging tea gardens in Assam and the Tea Association of India flagging excessive heat, flash floods and pest infestation as major challenges. According to Tocklai Tea Research Institute (TTRI), a private research institution in Jorhat, Assam, funded by the government’s Tea Board India, yields decline when the average temperature exceeds 26.6°C, while intense and variable rainfall also hurts productivity.
Tea cultivation requires a moderately hot and humid climate. Ambient temperature in the range of 13°C to 28-32°C is conducive for the growth of tea, according to TTRI. Excess rainfall in the monsoon months of June-September causes drainage problems. During the November-March period, a prolonged dry spell can result in a deficit of soil moisture, which affects tea plants.
The northeastern region, particularly Assam, along with West Bengal accounted for more than 80% of India’s tea production of 1,383 million kg in FY26. The southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka, contribute most of the remaining output.
“Various studies have reported a substantial decline in annual rainfall in the range of approximately 37% to 43% between 2010 and 2025, adversely affecting soil moisture content, spiking irrigation dependence, and declining tea productivity,” said Arijit Raha, secretary general of the Indian Tea Association (ITA), which represents more than 425 gardens accounting for over 60% of India’s tea production.
Darjeeling tea
A case in point is Darjeeling tea, which has experienced significant climatic shifts over the past few decades, contributing to its categorization under the “very high” climate severity zone. Darjeeling tea is cultivated, grown or produced in 87 tea gardens in defined geographic areas that have been registered with the Tea Board.
“Almost all agricultural crops are impacted by climate change, and tea is no exception,” said Sonia Jabbar, who grows tea on 1,200 acres in Darjeeling. “Under extreme heat, the bushes cannot sustain production. As the ground heats up and water becomes unavailable to the roots, the soil becomes compacted and microbial activity declines. This weakens the bushes and makes them more vulnerable to pest attacks, which become increasingly prevalent under such conditions.”
Darjeeling tea production has fallen by more than 61% over three decades, from 14.49 million kg in 1990 to 5.6 million kg in 2025, according to a July 2026 white paper released by the ITA. It said that eight tea estates are closed and several others are incurring losses as production costs have risen substantially above market realizations.
“Long-term historical assessments have also indicated a rise of over 1°C in mean annual temperature over the last century, reflecting a clear warming trend in the Darjeeling hills. These climatic changes are increasingly impacting crop sustainability, quality, and overall plantation resilience in the region,” Raha added.
According to the India Meteorological Department, India’s east and northeastern region received 276 mm of rainfall in August, the ninth-lowest level since 1901 and sixth lowest since 2001. Rainfall during the southwest monsoon was 805.8 mm from 1 June to 31 August compared with the normal amount of 1,084.5 mm over the past 10 years. The mean temperature in the region remains at 28.71°C compared with the normal of 27.76°C, according to the weather department.
Need to adapt
“Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, longer dry spells and more frequent extreme rainfall events can affect both the productivity and quality of tea. The sector will need to adapt through better water management, climate-resilient varieties and improved weather-based advisories,” said KJ Ramesh, a climate change strategist and former director general of IMD.
India is among the world’s top five tea exporters, with China and Kenya leading in shipments by value. It has a share of about 10% in global tea exports. The country exported 239.51 million kg of tea valued at $988.13 million in FY26, according to ITA data, reflecting the importance of the sector to the country’s export earnings.
“Climate change is making tea-growing conditions in northeast India increasingly variable and less dependable. Rising temperatures, uneven rainfall, longer dry spells and declining humidity are together increasing heat and moisture stress on tea bushes. This can affect shoot growth, pluckable yield and the stability of commercially important flushes,” Dr Venkatesan Selvaraj, director of TTRI, said in an emailed response.
In Assam, studies indicate that tea yields decline with rising temperatures, while prolonged dry periods and delayed monsoons affect plucking patterns, he said.
“The priority should be to build resilience in existing tea-growing areas through better soil-moisture conservation, rainwater harvesting, shade management, drainage, climate-resilient cultivars and location-specific weather advisories,” Selvaraj said.
Queries emailed to the spokespersons of India’s ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare and the ministry of commerce and industry on 2 September remained unanswered till publishing time.
Imports from Nepal
The ITA has also flagged the inflow of tea from Nepal, seeking a minimum import price for orthodox teas to prevent low-priced imports from putting further pressure on domestic producers.
Tea imports from Nepal stood at 11.7 million kg in CY25, more than twice Darjeeling's entire production of 5.6 million kg that year. Nepal's shipments to India stood at 16.05 million kg in CY24 and 13.66 million kg in CY23, according to data cited by the ITA from the Tea Board and Directorate General of Foreign Trade.
The ITA has asked the West Bengal government for a support package of ₹113.28 crore to help revive the Darjeeling tea industry, which is grappling with a sharp decline in production, rising costs and growing competition from imported tea.
The ITA’s demands include ₹28 crore in aid to promote high-quality orthodox tea production, ₹50 crore support in employers’ contribution to provident fund, interest subsidy on working capital loans, mechanization of field operations and transport subsidy for the Darjeeling tea sector.