Industry
Mint Explainer: From scanty to deluge, how has sowing fared this monsoon season
Summary
- Delayed rains had hit Kharif sowing in June but with the monsoon current gathering pace and ample rains in July, overall acreage has now surpassed year-ago levels. Rainfall during August-September holds key
As the monsoon current gathered pace over the past month, after a tepid start in June, so did Kharif sowing activities in the country. Farmers have sown summer crops across 98 million hectare so far, up significantly from 20.3 million hectare as on 30 June.
July ended with 6% above normal rains compared with a 10% deficit in June.
Against this backdrop, Mint takes a look Kharif sowing progress and prospects going ahead.
What was the impact of monsoon rains on sowing during June and July?
Delayed rains had hit Kharif sowing in June but with the monsoon current gathering pace and ample rains in July, overall acreage has now surpassed year-ago levels.
Total area under Kharif crops rose marginally to 97.99 million hectare as of 11 August, compared with 97.26 million hectare a year ago.
For context, Kharif acreage stood at 20.3 million hectare as on 30 June.
Paddy acreage, which had triggered output concerns rose 1.9% year-on-year to 23.7 million hectare as on 28 July from June’s 2.6 million hectare, which was at that time 26.3% lower on year. Till date, paddy has been sown across 32.8 million hectare as against last year’s 31.2 million hectare.
Pulses, oilseeds, and cotton acreage, however, have remained lower on year even as the gap has narrowed.
Area under pulses was at 11.31 million hectare till August 11, as against 122.77 lakh hectares a year ago.
Oilseeds area fell marginally to 18.33 million hectare from 18.46 million hectare in the said period.
Area under the cotton crops as of 11 August was 1% lower on year at 12.1 million hectare as against 13.9% year-on-year drop at 4 million hectare as on 30 June.
What is the outlook for Kharif crops?
As of 12 August, India had received 540.4 mm of rains, 2% below normal despite events of floods and excess rainfall in the country, especially northern states, through most of July.
The Indian Metrological Department (IMD) has forecast August rainfall at 94% of long period average.
If rains are weak in August, as forecast by IMD, also in September, it may impact productivity to some extent.
Short duration crops such as moong, urad, groundnut and soybean which are typically in their harvesting stage in September are expected to be in late vegetative growth to pod formation stage, following delayed sowing due to poor rains in June.
Below-normal rainfall could lead to flower abortion which, in turn, will impact productivity of these crops, hurting overall output.
In the case of other crops like cotton, delayed sowing may lead to square, and boll drop if accompanied by lower rainfall activity in September, lowering yields. Additionally, infestation of pink bollworm is highly pronounced during dry weather conditions which will again hit yields.
However, in a relief of sorts, soil moisture situation is good following heavy rains in July and could, thus, help mitigate the impact of likely low rains in August.
In eastern India, which is a major grower of paddy, there is forecast of good rains in the latter half of August, brightening crop prospects.
Poor rains in September, when critical irrigation of Kharif crops is undertaken, remains a key monitorable.
