Industry
Mint Explainer: The good and the bad of late monsoon withdrawal for agriculture
Summary
- The typical monsoon withdrawal date of 17 September was revised in 2020, based on recent data. Prior to that, based on data from 1901-1940, the date was 1 September
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the southwest monsoon current has started withdrawing from parts of Rajasthan, indicating the beginning of the end of its four-month journey. The normal withdrawal date is 17 September. The full withdrawal typically takes about a month. Mint explains why the withdrawal has been delayed this year and what it means for India's agriculture sector.
Why is the southwest monsoon withdrawal delayed this year?
The start of monsoon withdrawal has been delayed because of the formation of a low-pressure area in Rajasthan and the neighbourhood which turned into a cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea.
The typical monsoon withdrawal date of 17 September was revised in 2020, based on recent data. Prior to that, based on data from 1901-1940, the date was 1 September.
The trend of delayed withdrawal has been attributed to natural variability or climate change. Meteorologists say that changes in weather or climate patterns impact onset, progress and withdrawal of monsoon. For decades, monsoon withdrawal from southwest Rajasthan has been delayed resulting in more rains in northwest India.
Earlier, monsoon was supposed to cover the entire country by 15 July. Now the revised date is 8 July. This means the arrival of the southwest monsoon in northwest India is early and withdrawal is late, making for more rainy days in northwest India.
What is the impact on farming?
According to the met department, any delay in the retreat of the monsoon current means a longer rainy season, which in turn impacts crop production, especially in northwest India.
Higher rainfall in September will not help with kharif activities, and excessive precipitation may cause damage to standing crops in the flowering or vegetative stage.
For rabi crops, however, good rains this month will help replenish reservoirs where water levels have fallen 19% on year, and stood 8% below the 10-year average as of 21 September. They will also boost soil moisture, which will be beneficial for rabi crops, sowing for which will start next month.
How will the delay in withdrawal of southwest monsoon impact the onset of northeast monsoon?
As the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is expected around the normal time, it will get transformed into the northeast monsoon in South Peninsular India with winds coming from the northeast.
Therefore, there will be no impact of delayed withdrawal of southwest monsoon on northeast monsoon as it is continuous. The onset of the northeast monsoon is expected around the normal date of 20 October.
How do changes in weather patterns and monsoon impact agricultural activities?
India receives over 75% of the annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon which plays a crucial role in output of kharif, or summer, crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane.
With evolving monsoon pattern, the sowing cycle gets affected, as large tracts of India's arable land lack access to irrigation systems.
This monsoon season so far, rainfall has been deficient in key rice producing states such as Uttar Pradesh (-16%), Bihar (-22%), Jharkhand (-27%) and West Bengal (10%) and top pulses-growing states like Maharashtra (-5%), Karnataka (-18%), Andhra Pradesh (-8%) and Tamil Nadu (9%).
Although area under paddy crossed last year’s figures by 10.8% to 41.2 million hectares (mh), pulses area fell nearly 6% to 12.2 mh as of 22 September. Total kharif planting was up 3.7% to 110.2 mh from the previous year.
India’s food grain production rose by 5% year-on-year to a new record of 330.5 million tonne in the 2022-23 (July-June) crop year. The target for the 2023-24 season is marginally higher at 332 million tonne.
