After a weak start last month, the monsoon has made up ground in July, narrowing the seasonal deficit. Planting of kharif crops has improved as well, with the year-on-year gap in sowing narrowing to less than 5%.
However, intense rain in parts of India has led to massive loss of life and property. Besides, a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, forecast to be the strongest in history, means India’s weather troubles are far from over. In fact, drier spells may lie just ahead. Mint explains.
How has the monsoon progressed?
The June-September southwest monsoon, which provides more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall, has bounced back after a poor start, though the recovery has been far from uniform. In June, the rainfall deficit was 40% below the long-period or 50-year average (LPA). But this month has seen a marginal surplus, reducing the seasonal rainfall deficit to 16% of LPA as of 28 July.
However, the recovery has been highly uneven. Extreme downpours and cloudbursts in states like Gujarat, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh caused nearly 150 deaths in July. Meanwhile, severe dry spells persist elsewhere under the influence of El Niño, with IMD data showing a rainfall deficit of 20% or more across 40% of the country. Agricultural hubs like Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand remain severely hit, with seasonal shortfalls of 25% or more.
What is the status of crop planting?
Planting of rainfed Kharif crops is currently 4.7% lower compared to last year (as of 24 July), though better than the 23% lower sowing by the end of June. Barring sugarcane, all crops have seen lower planting, including rice, oilseeds, cotton, and coarse grains.
Pulses have taken the hardest hit, with acreage down 7.5%, driven by sharp drops in tur, down 12%, and maize, down nearly 10%. While these gaps are expected to narrow further as late-July data comes in, rainfall in August will be crucial as crops enter the vital grain-formation stage.
How is El Niño shaping up?
El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean, usually leads to less rain in South Asia. Since 1951, 12 out of 17 El Niño years have coincided with below-normal rain in India. Global models predict that the ongoing El Niño, announced in June, could be the strongest in at least 150 years, surpassing the previous record, set in 1877-78, by a wide margin. Combined with human-induced climate change, El Niño 2026 is forecast to last until April of 2027, a year that is likely to bring record-breaking heat.
What’s the outlook on food inflation?
Lower planting of pulses like tur and oilseeds like soybean would deepen India’s import dependence on these crops. Global oilseed prices were 23% higher year-on-year in June, driven by higher palm oil prices, of which India is a major importer. While cereal prices are likely to be benign due to ample public stocks of rice and wheat, prices of vegetables could be volatile owing to heat stress, dry spells, and episodes of intense rainfall in the coming months.
Consumer food inflation stood at 5.1% year-on-year in June but is expected to firm up to 7.5% by the third quarter of FY27 (October-December), according to projections by Care Ratings. The ratings agency expects food inflation to average 6.1% for the entire year.
What risks lie ahead for India?
Reservoir levels are a key monitorable for the agriculture sector. Monsoon rains play a crucial role in filling reservoirs, which are then used to irrigate winter (rabi) crops after the monsoon. Data for 166 key reservoirs shows live storage currently stands at 38% of capacity, significantly lower than the 64% level recorded at this time last year.
Therefore, rainfall in August and September is critical for both the ongoing kharif season and the upcoming rabi crop cycle. Furthermore, with El Niño likely to extend well into next year, the summer of 2027 (March to May) could bring record-breaking heat and severe water shortages to parts of India.