JPMorgan posts record profit on $6 bn stock-trading haul, but Jamie Dimon warns, 'several risks are shifting'

JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported its highest quarterly profit ever after a surge in stock trading revenue and a $4.6 billion gain from its long-held stake in Visa Inc.

The second-quarter equities haul climbed 86% from a year earlier to $6.03 billion, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. Total trading revenue rose to a record $12.1 billion, surpassing the previous high set in the first quarter of this year, and also exceeding analysts' expectations.

JPMorgan’s net income for the quarter was $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share, as almost every business exceeded expectations, but even then, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon was sceptical about such a prospect.

We cannot predict how these forces will ultimately play out: Dimon

“Several risks are shifting below the surface like tectonic plates, including geopolitical tensions and wars, sticky inflation, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices,” Dimon said in the statement. “We cannot predict how these forces will ultimately play out. They may remain manageable, but they could also cause meaningful disruptions when they shift or collide.”

JPMorgan increased its full-year expense guidance to around $107.5 billion. In a presentation on Tuesday, the firm said the increase is “primarily due to higher volume- and revenue-related expenses driven by the activity levels and associated revenue outperformance.” Second-quarter expenses came in at $27.3 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Shares of New York-based JPMorgan, up 3.8% this year through Monday, fell 2.6% in early New York trading.

JPMorgan pulled in $3.28 bn in fees in second quarter

Investment banking is in focus in the wake of SpaceX’s record initial public offering in June. JPMorgan pulled in $3.28 billion in investment-banking fees in the second quarter, up 30% from a year earlier and ahead of analysts’ expectations. Equity and debt underwriters both surpassed estimates, with the latter notching a surprise gain. A 20% increase in fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions fell short of the 27% increase analysts expected.

The firm raised its full-year net interest income forecast to about $105.5 billion, up from the $103 billion executives expected in April. For the quarter, NII came in at $25.5 billion, up 10% year over year. The bank also said it expects the full-year net charge-off rate in its credit-card business to be around 3.2%, lower than the 3.4% guidance it provided in April.

Apart from JP Morgan, several rivals are also reporting results, and analysts expect the firms to deliver another bumper quarter for stock-trading desks, as market volatility—driven by policy uncertainty since Trump's 2024 election win—continues to boost activity.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)