New Delhi is keeping a close eye on its fuel and oil stocks, as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throws global oil supply chains into disarray.
According to two top officials aware of the matter, state-run refiners have crude oil stocks which will last around 25 days, plus petrol and diesel for another 25 days. India also has around 25 days of cooking gas stock, and liquified natural gas stock of up to 21 days, the people said, even as state-run refiners scout the world for new gas contracts.
All this is in addition to the country's strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). India’s existing SPR capacity stands at 5.3 million tonnes, enough to meet just 9.5 days of the country’s crude oil needs. As of October 2024, the latest date for which data is available, about 3.6 million tonnes were stored in underground SPR caverns.
With these stocks, the country is comfortably positioned at the moment, and new sources for energy products from other geographies are being explored, the people said on the condition of anonymity.
"At present, the government is reasonably comfortable in terms of stocks. Safeguarding the interests of Indian consumers remains the highest priority. Based on continuous monitoring, the government is cautiously optimistic that phased measures can be taken, if required, to further mitigate the situation," an official statement said on Tuesday. It said the country is "well-stocked" with oil and petro-products to deal with short-term disruptions. The Union ministry of petroleum and natural gas has formed a 24×7 control room to continuously monitor the supply and stock position across the country.
State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)—Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd (BPCL)—account for around 78% of India’s retail fuel market.
Half of India's crude oil cargoes come from the Persian Gulf, crossing the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure a matter of deep concern. India imports around 90% of its crude oil requirements. Officials said the recent engagements with Canada on the energy front will also help meet the demand for cooking gas. Supplies from the US began in January.
"We are comfortably positioned to navigate the scenario with stocks for 25 days of crude and 25 days of (petroleum) products. OMCS are also looking at alternate sources for all energy products," one of the two people said, adding supplies from Russia have not halted, although they have declined.
Oil prices have surged nearly 15% in the past two trading sessions. At the time of writing, the April contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) was trading at $82.90 per barrel, higher by 6.91% from its previous close. Similarly, the April contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX rose 6.46% to $75.83 a barrel. The surge carries significance for India, a net importer. An increase of $1 per barrel of oil for an entire year boosts its import bill by around ₹16,000 crore.
While China and India, Asia's top energy consumers, source around half of their crude imports from West Asia, India has relatively less oil in storage, an energy analyst told Reuters.
"China has at least six months’ worth of crude supplies in storage. Indian inventories are much lower though, and so (it) is much more vulnerable in this situation," said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, a commodities research group. Japan's oil reserves are equivalent to 254 days of consumption, while South Korean stocks can cover about 208 days, the report said, without giving a break-up of fuel, refiners' crude oil stocks and strategic reserves.
"If we see a prolonged war, with the Strait out of use for an extended period, it would mean all countries globally competing for every incremental barrel of oil possible," Parmar told Reuters.
Mint earlier reported that OMCs may increase imports from Russia, along with Africa and South America. In February, Russia supplied 1.04 million barrels of oil per day on an average, followed by 1 million bpd by Saudi Arabia and 980,000 bpd by Iraq, according to data from global ship tracking firm Kpler. Supplies from Russia have thinned from the peaks of 1.8 million bpd in November 2025 and 2 million bpd in July 2024. In FY25, Russian supplies to India averaged at 1.8 million bpd.
According to the petroleum ministry, India has ensured both availability and affordability of energy for its population by diversifying its sources. India currently sources oil from about 41 countries.
"Indian energy companies now have access to energy supplies that are not routed through the Strait of Hormuz. Such cargoes will remain available and help mitigate supplies that may be temporarily affected en route through the Strait of Hormuz," it said.
The global oil market is well-placed to manage the Iran impact, advisory firm Oxford Economics said in a report on Tuesday.
“The market is well-supplied, and Iran is unlikely to sustain disruption that is both severe and prolonged, making a full-blown oil crisis unlikely,” said Bridget Payne, head of energy forecasting at Oxford Economics, adding that although the Strait remains technically open, transit has effectively paused because of security risks and prohibitive insurance costs.
Around a fifth of global oil and LNG transits the Strait of Hormuz each day, Payne noted, worth over $1.3 billion, including Iranian exports. “We now assume oil supply is disrupted by an average of 4 mbpd over the next quarter and expect Brent to average $79 per barrel in Q2, $15 above our February baseline, before easing as supply resumes by the end of the quarter,” he added.
QatarEnergy, a key gas supplier to India, shut operations temporarily on Monday after an Iranian missile struck its Ras Laffan plant. Officials said operations at the facility may be paused for about 10 days, and India has adequate stocks for the near term, and would look at fresh measures in case the closure extends. QatarEnergy said it has also shut its downstream units producing urea, polymers, methanol, aluminum and other products.
In February 2024, Petronet LNG Ltd extended its contract to buy 7.5 million tonnes of LNG annually from QatarEnergy for another 20 years.
Shweta Singh, associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University noted that Iran might not refrain from prolonged closure, but the US, and its allies would make sustained efforts, even militarily to keep the oil flow going.
It will get tough if Saudi oil infrastructure is targeted, Gulf countries are drawn into this conflict, Singh said. "Extreme disruption might lead to a situation very close to the oil shock of 1970s, but that proposition is not something that even the US, and its allies would aim for. However, for Iran, and particularly for its regime, it is an issue of survival, and Hormuz, and shipping lanes remain the hard bargain points," she added.