India's thermal coal output seen growing 4.3% annually till 2028: Report

  • Coal India production—which accounts for around 90% of domestic output — will underwhelm the govt expectations
  • Along with weaker Chinese and Indian demand, South Korea and Japan will also see coal consumption slowing down in 2019

New Delhi: Fitch Solutions on Tuesday said India's thermal coal output is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.3% by 2028.

"In absolute volume terms, China and India will have the largest impact on the global coal market balance," Fitch Solutions Macro Research said in a report.

It further said the surge in Chinese imports that occurred over 2015-2017 as a result of dramatic domestic production curbs was a temporary phenomenon.

"We forecast thermal coal production in China to stagnate at 0.5% growth per annum from 2019 onwards, but not decline, as new coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces offset mine closures in the rest of the country," it said.

It further estimates that production by state-owned Coal India (CIL) -- which accounts for around 90% of domestic output -- will underwhelm the government expectations.

"We forecast India's thermal coal output to grow by an average annual rate of 4.3% over 2019-2028," it said.

Along with weaker Chinese and Indian demand, South Korea and Japan will also see coal consumption slowing down in 2019 due to heightening environmental concerns, it added.

"We maintain our thermal coal price forecast for 2019 at $85/tonne as our previous belief that prices will be pressured downwards in 2019 due to lower seaborne demand from China and India, while global production will remain buoyant, is playing out," the report noted.

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