India’s EV market to grow 66% in 2024, likely to represent nearly one-third of PV sales by 2030

  • The projections for 2024 show that the rising EV sales in India will constitute four of total passenger vehicle sales, driven by new entrants and government subsidies

Nikita Prasad
First Published9 Apr 2024
EVs are expected to represent nearly a third of India's personal vehicle market by 2030. Photo: Bloomberg
EVs are expected to represent nearly a third of India’s personal vehicle market by 2030. Photo: Bloomberg

Electric vehicle (EV) sales in India are expected to rise 66 per cent this year after nearly doubling in 2023 as the state subsidies help fuel demand and supporting infrastructure comes up in the country, According to a recent report by research firm Counterpoint. This comes after India’s EV sales nearly doubled in 2023, driven by rising consumer interest and concerns over climate change.

The projections for 2024 show that the rising EV sales will constitute four of total passenger vehicle (PV) sales, driven by new entrants and government subsidies. By 2030, EVs are expected to represent nearly one-third of India’s PV market, signaling a robust long-term growth trajectory in the country’s automotive sector, said the research firm in its report published late last week.

Also Read: Green ride: Yamaha's motorcycle strategy shifts towards ethanol, not EVs

Tata Motors, M&M & more: Big players of India's EV market

With a strong portfolio and strategic tie-up with Uber, Tata Motors held more than two-thirds of the country’s EV market in 2023 but lost some share to Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and BYD. Recording a 2,476 per cent increase with just one model in its portfolio, M&M was the fastest-growing brand in 2023, followed by BYD and MG Motor, according to the report. 

M&M's growth can be attributed to its aggressive marketing efforts around the all-electric SUV XUV400 launched in 2023. BYD also made a big splash in the region last year, reporting over 1,500 per cent in EV sales growth in the country with just two models in its India line-up, the e6 MPV and Atto 3 SUV.

Also Read: India lures EV makers with import duty cuts, paves way for Tesla's entry

Despite belonging to the premium category, BYD secured a position among the top five EV brands in India. BYD’s recent launch of the Seal model is expected to further enhance the brand’s market presence and competitiveness.

Last month, the government lowered EV import taxes on certain models if carmakers commit to invest at least $500 million and start domestic manufacturing within three years, a move seen as a win for foreign automakers.

Tesla has begun production of right-hand drive cars at its plant in Germany for export to India later this year. Vietnamese automaker VinFast also plans to invest $2 billion in the country and in February began constructing a factory in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, according to news agency Reuters.

Outlook

Maruti Suzuki’s entry into the EV market is expected to shake up Tata’s dominance, said Counterpoint in its report. VinFast’s move to build a factory in India’s Tamil Nadu state highlights the growing interest and investment in EV manufacturing in the country. This not only signifies increased competition but also reflects the evolving landscape of the automotive industry, shifting towards sustainable and eco-friendly technologies, said the report.

Also Read: Even the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market is slowing

‘’The rise in EV battery manufacturing, supported by key players like Ola, Reliance New Energy and ACC Energy Storage, alongside the Make in India initiative, will lower manufacturing costs and boost EV sales,'' said Liz Lee, Associate Director of the research firm.

Government initiatives such as the PLI scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cells (ACC) and the recent reduction in import duties on EVs are game changers. All this not only opens doors for Tesla but also signals India’s readiness to welcome significant investments and foster a new ecosystem for EVs and their component suppliers, according to the top official.

‘’As the infrastructure and consumer traction develops, we will see the entry of newer players such as Tesla and fast-growing Chinese brands like Xiaomi, which will catalyze innovation and competition in the world’s fourth-largest PV market,'' said Neil Shah, Research Vice President.

According to Shah, the EV market will see players in the broader value chain prioritizing India’s market not only to target domestic consumption but also for technology, research & development (R&D) as well as export opportunities. 

‘’This would span from the likes of Qualcomm and MediaTek designing and offering advanced auto components to BlackBerry providing safety and security software, to Foxconn reducing barriers for new entrants to India with its innovative MIH consortium-based ‘localized’ design and manufacturing model,'' said Shah.

 

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