If Iran drags on into the summer, airlines could face jet fuel shortages, leading to sharp fare increases and potential flight cuts, Michael O’Leary has warned.
5% to 10% of scheduled flights may be cancelled
Ryanair chief noted, as noted by Fortune, industry would be entering ‘unknown scenario’ if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for two to three more months which would lead to cancelation on 5% to 10% of flights scheduled for May, June, and July.
Noting that airlines won't be in a position to choose which flights to cancel as it would depend on how much jet fuel each airport still has available, he said, “So we will then look around, and we will be trying to ground one or two aircraft and minimize the inconvenience for customers.”
“But it’s going to be difficult. It’s going to be challenging.”
For summer summer trips book tickets now
In case, you are planning for a summer trip, O’Leary ‘strongly advises’ travellers to lock in their summer bookings early, before airfares rise further.
Jet fuel prices have surged, outpacing gasoline, as the Iran war has disrupted both oil supply and refining capacity. The US has also been affected. Major hubs like Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York are now seeing jet fuel prices average $4.88 per gallon—nearly double prewar levels.
Amid the risk of cancellation, is it really worth booking a flight so early? O’Leary replies, “I think we’re looking at maybe the risk to 5 or 10% of cancellations in June or July, but 95-90% of flight will still operate. So I think you’re really not taking much of a gamble. I would be much more concerned if you delay your booking, that actually you and your family will be paying much higher prices.”
Passengers may not be eligible for refund in case of cancellation
He further warned that passengers affected by cancellations may not be eligible for refunds, as airlines could cite extraordinary circumstances beyond their control. However, he added that travellers within Europe would not be left stranded,.
“At Ryanair, we have lots of flights on a daily basis. We will re-accommodate you, get you back, get you out, whatever it’s going to be,” O’Leary vowed. “You might be stuck for a day or two. But if you’re staying within Europe, you should be reasonably confident that, A, your original flight will operate and, B, if there is a disruption, bear in mind there’ll be far more disruptions this summer from French air traffic controllers not showing up to work.”
