Mumbai: India’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are set to report a largely steady March quarter, with demand holding up despite a complex operating environment. However, a volatile mix of commodity swings, geopolitical tensions and emerging inflationary pressures is beginning to cloud the outlook, even as companies rely on calibrated pricing and cost controls to protect margins.
Large listed players such as Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL), ITC Ltd, Nestle India, Dabur, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd and Marico Ltd are expected to reflect these cross-currents in their March quarter earnings, which will kick off later this month.
“FMCG companies will be able to maintain a status quo in the domestic market this quarter,” said Ankur Bisen, senior partner and head of retail, consumer products, food and e-commerce sectors at consulting firm The Knowledge Company. “The overall growth rate would depend on the company’s exposure to the export markets affected by the situation in the Middle East,” he added.
The US-Iran war in West Asia started on 28 February 2026, so the quarter’s results may reflect the trickling in of the war disruption in its last month, March.
Commodity swings, pricing actions
The March quarter saw swings in input costs, with early relief in some commodities giving way to renewed pressure as the quarter progressed.
Copra prices, a key input for coconut oil, have been a notable example. After surging by 130% over the past two years, prices fell about 35% this year due to increased supply from Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Rising crude oil prices linked to the ongoing war in energy-rich West Asia have had a cascading impact across cost lines—from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aluminium to plastics—flagging cost pressures. Food commodities have also firmed up, with global wheat prices on the rise and sugar trading at six-month highs.
Amid weak sentiment and broad selloff, shares of HUL hit a 52-week low of ₹2,022.50 on 2 April on the National Stock Exchange, even as the company recalibrates pricing amid rising input costs. The FMCG major this week acknowledged taking selective price hikes across its portfolio, citing volatility in key raw materials.
“Given current commodity inflation in crude, palm oil and plastics, we are taking selective price increases across our portfolio. While making any price changes, we always ensure that we maintain a consumer price-value equation,” a company spokesperson told Mint on Thursday.
Demand steady, growth uneven
Operationally, the reporting quarter reflects a stable but uneven demand environment.
Volume growth showed a sequential improvement, supported by trade channel normalization, companies’ quarterly updates released this month show. A key tailwind has been the rationalization in goods and services tax (GST) rates in September 2025, which saw rates for many goods and services cut. This had led to short-term supply chain disruptions as companies recalibrated pricing, while also raising expectations of a shift towards branded products as price gaps narrowed.
Company updates reflect these mixed trends.
Dabur, in its quarterly update on 3 April said its India FMCG business is likely to post a “high single-digit growth” in the March quarter, reflecting a recovery in demand. However, performance remains uneven across segments. The home & personal care business continues to operate in a high-growth lane, sustaining mid-teens expansion, with key categories such as hair oils, shampoos and home care clocking over 20% growth, driven by broad-based, volume-led demand and consistent market share gains across brands. In contrast, its food and beverages segment remains subdued, expected to grow in low single digits despite pockets of strength in foods and juices.
Marico, in its quarterly update on 2 April, said it expects “double-digit operating profit growth in this quarter, with a sequential improvement in growth,” . In Q3, its Ebitda margin was 16.7%, down 234 basis points from a year ago. Marico, the maker of Parachute brand of coconut oil, continues to see strength in its core hair oil franchise, supported by premiumization and distribution expansion. Its food portfolio has grown in the high teens, while digital-first and premium personal care brands—including Beardo, Plix, True Elements, Just Herbs and Cosmix—are scaling up, aiding diversification.
“Consolidated revenue grew in the low twenties year-on-year during the quarter, enabling us to achieve our full-year aspiration of mid-twenties growth,” Marico said.
On 6 April, Godrej Consumer Products also guided for double-digit underlying sales growth and high single-digit volume growth, noting that volume growth remains in double digits, excluding soaps. However, the company was cautious. “We do expect sustained inflation into the first half of FY27 and will address the same through a combination of pricing actions and cost efficiency programmes–consistent with our established approach to navigating commodity cycles,” it said.
AWL Agri Business Ltd, formerly Adani Wilmar Ltd, which has Fortune as its flagship brand, on 6 April said its business remained flat during the quarter due to consolidation of institutional rice exports, although the edible oil portfolio delivered a robust 17% year-on-year volume growth.
War and monsoon risks cloud outlook
Multiple risks are converging for the sector.
After remaining benign for long, India’s retail inflation has now started inching up. Consumer price index-based inflation was at 3.4% in March, up from 3.21% in February and 2.74% in January.
Geopolitical exposure is a key variable. Companies such as Dabur and Emami could see an impact at the consolidated level due to their presence in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, which accounts for about 6-8% of revenue, according to Motilal Oswal's analysts.
Weather risks are also emerging. Ratings agency Icra has flagged the India Meteorological Department forecast of a below-normal South-West monsoon this year as a potential upside risk to food inflation. A below-normal monsoon could disrupt kharif output and rural incomes, which are closely linked to FMCG demand.
Rural demand has supported growth in recent quarters. But with the possibility of El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall, “you will start to see an impact on consumption from Q3 FY27 onwards,” said Bisen of The Knowledge Company.
Analysts remain divided on margins. Kotak Institutional Equities expects year-on-year margin expansion, supported by stable raw material prices in January and February and the consumption of lower-cost inventory in March.
In contrast, Nirmal Bang expects Ebitda margins to decline due to geopolitical tensions. While the impact on Q4 remains limited due to timing, implications for FY27 margins are meaningful, with categories such as home care and personal care more exposed, and even staples facing indirect pressure through freight and input costs.