Layoffs? What layoffs?

BY JUSTIN LAHART | UPDATED NOV 30, 2022 01:28 PM EST

All those big job-cut announcements aren’t denting layoff statistics—which says something about the job market

Every day it feels like another big American company is announcing layoffs. But even if you squint, it is hard to find those layoffs showing up in job-market statistics.

As part of its monthly job openings and labor turnover, or JOLTs, report, the Labor Department on Wednesday reported that a seasonally adjusted 1.39 million people were laid off or discharged from their jobs in October. That was up a tad from September’s 1.33 million but still extremely low. In the two decades of available data before the pandemic—a period that includes years when the U.S. population and workforce was notably smaller than it is now—it never fell below 1.59 million.

Other parts of the report also suggested that, through the end of October, the job market was strong. It showed 10.3 million unfilled job openings on the last day of the month, down from September’s 10.7 million, but still close to two job openings for each person counted as unemployed during the month. The number of hires topped the number of separations—people leaving their job for any reason—by 329,000. That suggests this Friday’s November job report, which is based on readings taken relatively early in the month, could be strong.

To be sure, much of the recent flurry of firing announcements came in November, so it might be just a matter of time before they make a mark on the JOLTs figures. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have edged up in recent weeks, for example. Moreover, while Wednesday’s report showed that the number of people quitting their jobs remained high compared with prepandemic trends—an indication of a tight labor market where people are finding better work elsewhere—there was a notable drop in quits within the information sector, which includes companies such as Meta Platforms and Google-parent Alphabet.

Still, the available evidence suggests that the layoff phenomenon is concentrated in large public companies, such as Meta and Amazon.com, that hired mightily after the pandemic struck and are now concluding they have too many workers. Meanwhile, the high level of job openings suggests that, away from the headlines, many employers are still itching to hire.

If layoffs really are going to pick up across the economy, it seems likely that job openings will fall significantly first, as will the number of people quitting their jobs. In aggregate, U.S. employers will need to start thinking they have staffed up enough before deciding they overstaffed.

There are more than 150 million people working in the U.S., so it makes sense that the labor market can shake off some big layoff announcements. Federal Reserve interest-rate increases are a different matter. Wednesday’s report offered more evidence that America’s job engine is in good shape, but investors shouldn’t take it continuing to run well as a given.