Import squeeze, not demand boom, drives India’s steel export shift
India emerged as a net exporter of finished steel in April–December 2025 as safeguard duties and quality curbs sharply cut imports, even as exports rose amid weak domestic prices and surplus supply.
India turned a net exporter of finished steel during April–December 2025 after a sharp fall in imports following government curbs, according to a Ministry of Steel report reviewed by Mint.
The decline in imports narrowed the gap between inbound and outbound shipments, allowing the country to swing into a net exporter position after years when cheap steel inflows had raised concerns over the profitability of domestic producers.
During the nine-month period, India exported 4.79 million tonnes (mt) of finished steel, up 33% from 3.60 mt a year earlier. Imports fell 37% to 4.65 mt from 7.42 mt in the same period last year.
The gap has narrowed largely through policy measures such as quality control orders and safeguard duties. Between April and November 2025, India was a marginal net importer by just 0.01 mt, with imports at 4.19 mt and exports at 4.18 mt.
Policy-driven shift
The turnaround has been largely policy-led rather than demand-driven, experts say.
“While the current data shows a near balance between imports and exports, this is more a result of restricted imports than a surge in demand-led exports, and the sustainability of this balance remains uncertain," said Dhruv Goel, chief executive officer of commodities market intelligence firm BigMint.
Imports fell after the government imposed safeguard duties to discourage cheap shipments. Vietnamese mills—key suppliers to Indian traders—also lost mandatory Indian quality certifications, leading to a further decline in inflows, Goel said.
Safeguard duty
On 30 December, the government imposed a staggered safeguard duty of 12% on select steel products, which will fall to 11.5% in the second year and 11% in the third year. The duty applies only to imports priced below specified thresholds, according to a gazette notification.
The levy covers key flat steel products including hot-rolled coils and plates, cold-rolled coils, metallic-coated steel and colour-coated steel. It replaces a temporary 12% safeguard duty imposed for 200 days in April 2025.
Flat steel products are used across construction, automobiles, appliances, furniture, machinery and infrastructure. Coatings act as anti-corrosants, improving durability.
“As a result of the three-year safeguard duty, steel imports are expected to remain in the range of 4–5 million tonnes annually," Goel said.
Price pressure
Despite the curbs, domestic steel prices have remained weak due to oversupply and softer demand.
Steel consumption grew 6.8% during April–December 2025, nearly half the 11% growth recorded a year earlier, Ministry data show. Production, however, rose 10% during the period, compared with 4% growth in April–December 2024.
In April 2025, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were around ₹52,000 per tonne—cheaper than Chinese imports and broadly in line with Japanese steel. Prices slid further to a 10-month low of about ₹47,100 per tonne in November, even as imported Chinese and Japanese steel remained significantly more expensive.
Lower domestic prices and surplus supply pushed Indian producers to seek overseas markets, lifting exports despite weak global demand, Goel said, adding that shipments to Vietnam have risen after the country imposed duties on Chinese steel.
Europe remained India’s largest export destination, accounting for over 40% of shipments during April–November, ministry data show. Country-wise data for December is yet to be released.
Italy, Spain and Belgium together accounted for 1.71 mt of India’s steel exports out of 4.18 mt shipped during April–November.
Price hikes
Steelmakers announced price hikes in January following the imposition of the three-year duty. Prices of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil were raised 2–4%, while rebar prices rose 3–6%. Even so, domestic prices continued to trade at a discount to imports.
Benchmark HRC prices stood at ₹51,500 per tonne on 13 January 2026, compared with a landed cost of ₹56,125 per tonne for Chinese steel.
Looking ahead, export prospects remain uncertain, Goel warned.
“India’s export outlook is heavily tied to Europe, and any tightening of quotas or carbon-related rules there could quickly weigh on volumes. Over the medium term, export growth will depend on India’s ability to improve cost competitiveness and address carbon-related barriers in global markets," he said.
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