NEW DELHI: Escalating military tensions in West Asia are beginning to disrupt travel and trade links critical to India’s medical value tourism and pharmaceutical exports, as airspace restrictions and shipping detours threaten to slow patient flows and raise logistics costs.
Early signs of disruption are already visible in aviation networks. In a tweet on Saturday, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation said Indian airlines cancelled around 410 flights on 28 February and 440 on 1 March due to security concerns in parts of the Middle East airspace, impacting Gulf and long-haul routes beyond the region, including services to London Heathrow and Canada.
Industry executives say the fallout from strikes involving the US, Israel and Iran has introduced fresh uncertainty into aviation and maritime corridors that connect India with key West Asian markets, complicating travel planning for patients and increasing freight expenses for exporters.
While companies have yet to report a sustained demand shock, hospitals and drugmakers say the disruption to mobility and logistics systems underpinning cross-border healthcare and medicine trade raises the risk of softer medical travel volumes and higher export costs if tensions persist.
Medical tourism faces mobility uncertainty
The aviation disruption is particularly significant for India’s medical tourism sector, which recorded approximately 644,387 foreign tourist arrivals in 2024. It is particularly exposed to West Asia, a region that accounts for nearly 18% of inbound patients, or about 115,000 travellers, seeking treatment ranging from complex surgeries to advanced clinical care.
As regional airspace comes under heightened security scrutiny, industry leaders say travel uncertainty is beginning to influence patient decision-making. Nations such as Iraq and Oman have shown steady growth in patient numbers over the last four years, but executives warn that prolonged disruption could slow that momentum.
Dr. Aashish Chaudhry, managing director of Aakash Healthcare, said that the evolving tensions involving Israel, Iran, and the US are inevitably impacting medical travel patterns across the region. “Airspace restrictions and rising travel uncertainties are directly influencing patient mobility, both for those seeking treatment in India and for Indian patients who traditionally travelled to regional hubs like Dubai for specialized care.”
Chaudhry added that shifting travel dynamics could also redirect some patients toward India as an alternative destination, as travellers reassess treatment options amid instability.
Hospitals prepare for softer near-term volumes
For large hospital networks, where West Asia forms a meaningful share of international business, executives say the risks are immediate but likely temporary.
At Fortis Healthcare, West Asia contributes about 22% of total international footfall. Dr. Ritu Garg, chief growth officer at Fortis Healthcare, said patients typically choose India for clinical expertise, cost advantages and faster access to procedures such as oncology treatment, organ transplants and neurosurgery.
She warned that ongoing geopolitical conflict can impact this segment through travel restrictions and flight disruptions, particularly from countries directly affected.
“These factors, combined with currency instability and delays in government-sponsored referrals, may lead to a softening of high-value surgical volumes. While Fortis expects a temporary moderation in the first quarter, the group plans to mitigate risk through diversified source markets in Africa and South Asia, alongside a medicine-led clinical growth strategy.”
Pharma exports and rising logistics costs
The pharmaceutical industry faces a different transmission channel: shipping disruption. Security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor have prompted major carriers to suspend or restrict transits, extending transit times by 10–20 days and raising freight rates by 40-50% on key India-Europe routes, according to industry executives and insurers.
India currently fulfils about 40% of Iran’s generic medicine requirements, while West Asia accounts for roughly 6% of India’s $30.47 billion pharmaceutical exports. Industry executives say the disruption risks increasing costs across supply chains serving the region.
Uday Bhaskar, former director general of Pharmexcil, a pharmaceutical export promotion council, said the conflict is likely to affect trade through supply-chain instability and higher operating costs.
“As the war extends, the industry will face increased freight and insurance expenses, which is particularly critical during March—a month when Indian firms typically strive for higher export volumes to meet annual targets. The disruption extends beyond direct shipments to Iran, as Dubai serves as a vital redistribution hub for Indian generics and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) heading toward Africa and other Arab nations.”
“The closure of regional airlines and the unpredictable nature of retaliatory threats necessitate a 'wait and watch' approach for these essential medical shipments,” Bhaskar added.
Despite near-term uncertainty, industry leaders argue that India’s healthcare and manufacturing infrastructure remains positioned to absorb temporary shocks.
Chaudhry said geopolitical instability could ultimately reinforce India’s role as a dependable healthcare destination if patients shift away from regional transit hubs. “The strengthening of the 'Heal in India' vision and enhanced coordination between healthcare providers and aviation authorities.”
Similarly, Viranchi Shah, national spokesperson for the Indian Drugs Manufacturers Association (IDMA), described the situation as a “short-term supply disruption” driven primarily by higher freight costs rather than a structural decline in demand.