NEW DELHI: The West Asia conflict is hitting Gulf and European travel in the short term, but hotel groups are already looking to India for the long term. With millions of young passport holders and outbound trips rising year after year, the country represents a far bigger prize, according to Christopher Hartley, chief executive, Global Hotel Alliance (GHA).
The Dubai-based company runs the world’s largest hotel loyalty programme for independent hotels, bringing together over 50 brands and 950 hotels across 100 countries. Hartley said that while the war may weigh on short-term bookings, India’s outbound market remains largely untapped.
Travel to West Asia is still disrupted and could shift flows in the near term, he said, but the broader trajectory of demand is unlikely to change. “The question now is really if it can be resolved in April. If yes, then hotels have a chance to recover by the latter part of the year. We don't expect much business to come till May. As a result, there will be a very busy October-December period, where Dubai will be crammed," Hartley, who was in India recently, told Mint.
Some travel demand from India and elsewhere may temporarily move away from West Asia and Europe if disruptions persist, he added, but he does not believe it will vanish. “What the covid-19 pandemic taught us was that the travel industry has become quicker to react, and consumers quicker to return. People’s perception of risk has also changed,” he said.
The West Asia conflict has begun to disrupt leisure travel, though the immediate impact is showing up more in aviation than in tourism volumes. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on 2 March that the latest hostilities had introduced uncertainty into traffic and fuel costs, putting pressure on a region that serves as a key global aviation hub.
Early indicators still point to resilience. Global international passenger traffic rose 5.9% year-on-year in January 2026, with West Asian carriers recording 7.2% growth, according to IATA. For now, the fallout is visible more in airspace disruption, rerouting and softer booking sentiment than in a confirmed drop in travel volumes.
The region remains critical for Indian travellers, accounting for 41% of all international flights from India in 2023, according to IATA, with Dubai alone handling about 5% of the country’s outbound traffic.
Leisure travel has also become more resilient. On GHA’s platform, business travellers now spend about $150–$200 per night, well below leisure travellers, who are willing to pay significantly more, sometimes up to $1,000 per night, particularly for weekend or holiday stays.
“The world has turned on its head. Companies are less willing to pay high prices for work trips, but leisure spending is booming,” Hartley added. The company’s largest cohort is in the US, followed by the UK, with India ranking tenth.
Hartley hopes India will become a leading source of travellers in the next five years. The bigger long-term question for hotel loyalty groups such as GHA is not what happens to one summer in the Gulf, but how to position for the next wave of outbound travellers, particularly from India.
India remains one of the most compelling travel markets globally because of its headroom. “If you look at China today, which is about $140 billion outbound spends, and India is about $35–40 billion. You’ve still got this $100 billion gap which is going to close,” he said.
Independent reports suggest the same. A 2024 Nangia Andersen report, Outbound Tourism in India, projected the market will grow at an 11.4% CAGR through 2032, reaching $44.8 billion, up from $15.1 billion in 2022.
According to Hartley, Indian outbound demand on GHA’s platform has been rising by around 20–25% a year, and he expects growth to continue as more Indians travel abroad with greater frequency and spending power. Younger travellers are entering the system earlier and expect loyalty programmes to be simple and transparent, with rewards that are visible and instantly usable rather than tied to complex points structures.
GHA currently partners with The Leela Hotels & Resorts in India, which targets the top tier of travellers. But Hartley said the group cannot rely on luxury alone. “We need scale in this market if we want to get access to 100–200 million middle-class consumers,” he said. That means adding hotel partners in the upper-midscale and mid-market categories to build relationships with travellers earlier, before they move up into premium and luxury stays.
Globally, GHA’s network includes brands such as Kempinski, Pan Pacific, Park Royal and Tivoli.
The domestic problem
While bullish on outbound travel, Hartley was more blunt about inbound tourism. “Inbound has got its own problems before the war,” he said. “It’s just lack of awareness and promotion.”
He argued India has not capitalized on the global leisure travel boom as effectively as competing Asian markets. “Incredible India was an amazing global promotion, but it remains offline now,” Hartley said. He also cited visa hurdles and cumbersome entry processes, saying the country still makes travel harder than necessary for international visitors.
India’s inbound tourism presents a mixed picture. International tourist arrivals stood at 20.57 million in 2024, an 8.9% increase over 2023 and 14.8% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019, according to the Ministry of Tourism. However, provisional data for 2025 showed arrivals slipping 2.4% year-on-year to 20.08 million.